2016 Free Agency: Fear the Warriors
The 2016 Free Agency period was the NBA’s worst nightmare. The 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement was intended to promote competitive balance and parity. By instituting a punitive luxury tax, teams were dismayed from becoming good by merely spending large sums on big-name free agents and spending years over the salary cap. Also, rules were instituted that gave teams more influence in controlling their draft picks throughout their rookie contracts and thereafter. The agreement was meant to buoy smaller-market teams who often lost their stars. Unfortunately, with a ballooning salary cap due to lucrative television revenues, the system that allowed a level playing field has created one of the most uneven ones in the league’s history, threatening a work stoppage into the 2017–18 season.
It’s almost assured the next CBA negotiation will focus on the elimination of the so-called “superteam”, so this imbalance of power won’t happen again. Owners will call for a hard-cap, which the Players Union will reject, and it’s worrisome that a lockout occurs. The issue is complex, and was written about at length on reddit in impressive fashion. That linked article proposes multiple solutions, which taken together become convoluted and unlikely. However, one of the suggestions, the elimination of the max salary, is an interesting first step.
LeBron James is likely worth anywhere between $50M-$75M per year on the open market. Ditto for Kevin Durant and Steph Curry. But according to league rules, they’re constrained to a percentage of the salary cap like every other player in the league. Therefore, this season, LeBron and Durant will be making similar salaries to players like Mike Conley and Al Horford. Conley and Horford are good players, but make nowhere near the impact of James or Durant. In a league with no maximum salary, if one wanted LeBron James, they could sign him, but he’d be worth so much that filling a team around him with other stars would be impossible. Maybe this would drive superstars to big markets, but it would level the competition. Teams could be built with above-average players at a lesser cost, and have a chance to topple the teams led by James or Durant while they are surrounded by less ability.
Kevin Durant joining the Warriors gives them 4 of the league’s top-20 players (Bill Simmons says top-12, he’s wrong). By any conceivable measure, they are the heavy favorite next year and for years to come. This happened because Steph Curry signed a ridiculously valuable contract when he was considered injury-prone, and the rest of their core is young enough where their “maximum” salaries are low enough to afford another top-5 player. It also happened because we live in the narrative-era of RINGZ, a world where one’s success in sport is solely measured by championships won; individual accomplishments and conference finals appearances be damned.
Durant’s power play created an interesting dynamic in the league. Some organizations, far from contention, will continue to build at their own pace. They weren’t beating last year’s Warriors anytime soon, so Durant’s presence shouldn’t effect their plans. Some organizations may feel their time has passed, and look towards the draft as a means of replenishing young talent and attempt to rise as the Warriors fall. And yet others will continue undeterred. Injuries and slumps happen, and even at full-strength some teams will feel they have a chance.
So, despite the idea that next season may be a foregone conclusion, I’ll analyze the key decisions made in free agency and how they affect the directions of a litany of NBA franchises.
Atlanta Hawks: Lost Al Horford, re-signed Kent Bazemore, signed Dwight Howard and Malcolm Delaney
The Hawks didn’t want to lose Al Horford. They wanted to keep him, sign Dwight and trade Paul Millsap. They failed, as Horford left for Boston upon misgivings about playing with Howard, and now are stuck in a precarious position. Howard is a mercurial but effective player, who seems to only engage defensively when given proper attention on offense. Mike Budenholzer is one of the last coaches in the league to placate his star center by giving him (somewhat) inefficient post touches to satisfy him enough to elicit activity on defense. Now, they hand the keys to Dennis Schroder, who could theoretically shred opponents in pick-and-roll with Howard, but he remains unproven in a starting role.
On the other hand, they are in a strange position with their best player. He’s a free agent next summer, eligible for a “mega-max” contract in a ballooning cap, and he knows the Hawks tried to trade him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s moved before the deadline, with the fear that he’d leave in free agency.
Boston Celtics: Lost Evan Turner, re-signed Amir Johnson, signed Al Horford, Jonas Jerebko TBD
Boston had a fantastic free agency, adding one of the best players on the market in Horford. I imagine they’ll let Jared Sullinger go, as Horford slides into the center position seamlessly in their lineup. Horford should fit well in a pass-happy offense that spaces the floor, and should have a lot of success with Isaiah Thomas. However, Sullinger’s main deficiencies were his inability to protect the rim and control the glass, two attributes at which Horford does fine but not at an elite level. In a strange way, I almost would prefer Howard here, as his defensive upside is higher, especially around the rim, and they could afford to let him loose in the post offensively. Losing Turner will be more significant than most expect, as he gave them needed depth as a ball handler, and played solid perimeter defense. They’ll need a jump from Marcus Smart. Nonetheless, the Celtics will be an improved team, and under Brad Stevens should contend for a top-4 seed next season.
Brooklyn Nets: Lost a ton of bums, Signed Jeremy Lin, Trevor Booker, Justin Hamilton, Greivis Vasquez.
Sean Marks had a decent offseason, signing Lin and Booker to decent contracts in this market and either bringing along a young guard with upside in Tyler Johnson or forcing the Heat to sign a “poison-pill” deal. Crabbe signed a 4-year contract worth $83 million (incentives included), which will be incredibly difficult for Portland to match. However, for a player that has only proven limited shooting ability and defensive upside, that is a curious sum. Between he and Tyler Johnson, the Nets spent over $130 million on two players that are not proven starters. It may prove to be a worthwhile risk, and considering their lack of draft assets, it’s necessary.
Update (July 10th): Both Portland and Miami signed the offer sheets for their respective free agents, and the Nets struck out on what was a decent strategy. Had the Heat retained Wade, it’s likely they would have let Johnson go. In Portland’s case, they are betting on Crabbe’s success, despite now owing long-term money to five separate guards/wings. The Nets will be brutally awful this year, and contend with the Sixers for the worst team in the NBA.
Charlotte Hornets: Lost Al Jefferson, Courtney Lee, Jeremy Lin, re-signed Nic Batum and Marvin Williams, signed Roy Hibbert, Ramon Sessions, traded for Marco Belinelli
Charlotte lost some key pieces but retained two of their better players last season in Williams and Batum. They should remain competitive, but last season may have been an overachievement. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slip, especially having lost significant scoring from the lineup.
Chicago Bulls: Lost Pau Gasol, E’Twaun Moore, Joakim Noah, Aaron Brooks, traded Mike Dunleavy, Derrick Rose, signed Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, traded for Robin Lopez, Jerian Grant
What an unmitigated disaster. The Bulls lost their entire core outside of Nikola Mirotic and Jimmy Butler, and brought in one of the worst shooting backcourts in the history of the NBA. Wade is still a very good player, though he has faded defensively and is not as efficient as he once was. Rondo chased stats all of last year and was one of the worst individual and team defenders I have seen watching basketball. Their frontcourt is deep, bolstered by Mirotic, Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez, with Cristiano Felicio coming on strong as well. However, when the starters play, opposing defenses will sag so far off the guards that Rondo’s passing and Wade’s penetration will be negated. If neither guard presents a shooting threat, and Butler on the wing doesn’t improve from long range (a career 33% 3pt shooter), it will be immensely difficult to score points.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Lost Matthew Dellavedova, Timofey Mozgov, re-signed LeBron James, Richard Jefferson, traded for Mike Dunleavy Jr., JR Smith TBD
The Cavaliers should have matched on Dellavedova. He was a great source of perimeter defense for them, and he wasn’t priced too high by Milwaukee. However, in trading for Dunleavy, they altered their Dellavedova strategy. Instead of simply not matching his contract with Milwaukee, they excecuted a sign-and-trade that created a $4.8 million trade exception. Then, they brought Dunleavy in using said exception, which allowed them to essentially swap the two players for free, while maintaining a $9.7 million trade exception they got from Anderson Varejao. Because the Cavaliers are so often capped-out, these trade exceptions are vital for their mid-season player acquisitions, like Channing Frye in 2015–16. That was a complex way of me saying David Griffin is a God damn wizard.
Dallas Mavericks: Lost Zaza Pachulia, Chandler Parsons, re-signed Dirk, Dwight Powell, Deron Williams, signed Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry, traded for Andrew Bogut
Messy offseason for Cuban and company. They must fear Parsons’ knees to not max him, but giving $94 million to Harrison Barnes doesn’t seem like the best idea. Seth Curry is a fantastic low-risk signing, who played underrated defense last season and shot well from long-range. The Mavericks won’t be in title contention again until they realize they can’t keep surrounding Dirk with middling pieces that gets them to the 8-seed and out. Williams-Matthews-Barnes-Nowitzki-Bogut is interesting and skilled on paper, but projects as slow as molasses on both ends.
Denver Nuggets: Lost D.J. Augustin, Re-signed Darrell Arthur, Joffrey Lauvergne TBD
Busy summer in Mile-High.
Detroit Pistons: Lost Anthony Tolliver, re-signed Andre Drummond, signed Ish Smith, Jon Leuer, Offer sheet signed by Boban Marjanovic
Great value all-around. Besides Drummond, the highest AAV (average annual value) given by the Pistons was to Leuer at $10.25M/year. Acquiring potentially three rotation players in this market without spending $30M/year would be a nice haul for Detroit.
Golden State Warriors: Lost Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, Brandon Rush, Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa, Re-signed Shaun Livingston, Signed Kevin Durant, David West, Zaza Pachulia
Amazing. Bench certainly lost some depth, and there is work to be done on the rebounding/rim protection fronts, but this team is tremendous.
Houston Rockets: Lost Dwight Howard, Signed Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Nene, Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones and Josh Smith all TBD
If healthy, lineups that include Harden-Gordon-Anderson in a D’Antoni offense could be ridiculously potent offensively. However, it’s hard to see how these additions make the Rockets a serious contender, especially on the defensive end. Although it seems likely they will score a ton of points, Eric Gordon will be inevitably injured, and James Harden will have a usage rate of 50%. Clint Capela in a full-time center role may be the most interesting part of the Rockets season.
Indiana Pacers: Lost Ian Mahinmi, Solomon Hill, signed Al Jefferson, traded for Jeremy Evans, Jordan Hill and Ty Lawson TBD
Most of the Pacers moves came via trade, acquiring Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young, which gave them some quality pieces that could lead to contention in the Eastern Conference. However, now that Larry Bird wants his Pacers to run, signing Jefferson seems odd. Also, they let go of two quality defenders in Mahinmi and Hill, so their defense is likely to suffer.
Los Angeles Clippers: Lost Jeff Green and Cole Aldrich, re-signed Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, Luc Mbah a Moute
Very typical Doc Rivers offseason. I fully expect him to trade for Jeff Green at the deadline.
Los Angeles Lakers: Lost Roy Hibbert, signed Timofey Mozgov, Luol Deng, re-signed Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Bass TBD
In the first move of free agency, Mitch Kupchak gave Mozgov 4 years, $64 million. How Mozgov fits stylistically or on the timeline of Russell-Clarkson-Ingram-Randle, I truly have no idea. Deng is a high-character guy who will put up solid numbers in LA and provide a decent leadership precense. He’s also making $18 million per year. I have no clue what the Lakers are doing.
Memphis Grizzlies: Lost Matt Barnes, re-signed Mike Conley, signed Chandler Parsons and James Ennis. JaMychal Green, Lance Stephenson, Mario Chalmers, Vince Carter TBD
Memphis should be back in contention in the West with a core of Conley-Parsons-Gasol. Assuming Parsons is healthy, he’ll take significant scoring load off the other high-usage players and be able to take ball-handling responsibilities from Conley as well. A more balanced attack should serve them well, and they compromise little on defense.
Miami Heat: Lost Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Luol Deng, re-signed Hassan Whiteside, signed Derrick Williams, Tyler Johnson, James Johnson, Willie Reed, Wayne Ellington, traded for Luke Babbitt
You can read my thoughts on Wade leaving Miami here. Miami is in a really tough spot, since Wade’s decision came so late they could not manuever to sign other free agents after the news. However, they retained Whiteside, still have Dragic, and continue to develop players like Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson. They should remain competent, and could theoretically deal their young talent to get back in contention, but I wouldn’t be stunned to see Riley finally elect a rebuilding effort. I hope Chris Bosh is healthy for next season, but that is a mystery as well.
Milwaukee Bucks: Lost Jerryd Bayless, signed Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic
Dellavedova and Teletovic fit Milwaukee’s style well, and they desperately needed more outside shooting to help space the floor around Giannis offensively. They accomplished that goal, and should be back closer to where they were two years ago as a surprise team in the East.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Signed Cole Aldrich and Brandon Rush
Exciting stuff from the Thibodeau regime.
New Orleans Pelicans: Lost James Ennis, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Signed Solomon Hill, E’twaun Moore, Langston Galloway
Fantastic offseason from the Pelicans. After bringing in Danny Ferry as a special advisor a month ago, the Pelicans made several low-cost strategic moves on young players adored by analytics with high upside. The Pelicans are finally on the right track putting players around Anthony Davis. Now, if they can get their training staff figured out, they could be in business.
New York Knicks: Lost Arron Afflalo, Derrick Williams, Langston Galloway. Re-signed Lance Thomas. Signed Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee, Brandon Jennings, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Willy Hernangomez
If the Knicks roster is healthy they’ll win 50 games. If not, they’ll win 35. Who knows?
Oklahoma City Thunder: Lost Kevin Durant, Re-signed Ersan Ilyasova, Dion Waiters TBD
You can read my thoughts on Durant going to the Warriors here. After adding Oladipo, a likely MVP-caliber season from Westbrook, and with the growth of Steven Adams, the Thunder should remain competitive in the West. However, their title hopes are likely dashed for the foreseeable future.
Orlando Magic: Lost Brandon Jennings, Andrew Nicholson, Dewayne Dedmon, Jason Smith, re-signed Evan Fournier, signed Jeff Green, D.J. Augustin, Bismack Biyombo
Interesting offseason from Orlando, who now has a crowded front court that includes Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic and Biyombo. I’d imagine Vucevic is available via trade, which would be an interesting piece for teams looking for scoring in the post. Vogel will surely have a good defense with the athleticism on the roster, as well as Biyombo and Ibaka, but scoring may be hard to come by. What I don’t understand is why they traded all their scoring (Oladipo, Harris, Sabonis, let Jennings go) for essentially one year of Ibaka. Now you have three front court guys who all need significant minutes, and moved legitimate wing pieces and a 1st round pick in the process. Just a bizarre strategy, and I don’t see the end game.
As an aside, the Ibaka-Biyombo front court shall be known forevermore as The Congo Line.
Philadelphia 76ers: Lost Ish Smith, signed Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, Gerald Henderson
The Sixers offered Jamal Crawford a 1-year deal for $25 million. Who knows what’s going on there? Looking for veteran leadership and trying to reach the salary floor, I guess. It won’t be fair when they get Josh Jackson.
Phoenix Suns: Lost Mirza Teletovic, Jon Leuer, re-signed PJ Tucker, signed Leandro Barbosa, Jared Dudley
Thriller of an offseason by Ryan McDonough.
Portland Trailblazers: Lost Gerald Henderson, Brian Roberts, signed Evan Turner, may lose Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, Mo Harkless both TBD
Allen Crabbe is probably just as good as Evan Turner, and he certainly has the higher upside. However, he signed a contract worth $10 million more, and the Blazers may be forced to let him go. Lillard signed a max last summer, and CJ McCollum has an upcoming max extension. The Blazers recently signed Al-Farouq Aminu long term as well. With their core signed into 2017, it‘s exceedingly difficult for them to retain Crabbe. The Blazers likely overachieved last season, and if Turner replacing Crabbe is the major change in their offseason, it will be difficult to maintain last year’s success.
Sacramento Kings: Lost Rajon Rondo, Seth Curry, signed Matt Barnes, Arron Afflalo, Anthony Tolliver and Garrett Temple
The Kings had a stunningly effective offseason. Barnes signed for $6 million per year, Afflalo’s 2nd year isn’t fully guaranteed, and they signed Tolliver and Temple, two players who have shown 3/D potential, for a combined $16 million per year. It was a strong allocation of resources, which may be a first.
San Antonio Spurs: Lost Boris Diaw, Tim Duncan (likely), David West, may lose Boban Marjanovic, re-signed Manu Ginobli, signed Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon
According to Basketball Reference, Pau Gasol had a 3.5 defensive box plus-minus last year and a 101 defensive rating. Both of those numbers seem like impossibilities considering the eye-test, but he had an incredible season. Here’s his season in comparison to Boris Diaw’s. Outside of FG%, Pau was better in almost every category. He should be a solid replacement for Duncan, should he retire. Yet, Parker is a year older and the Aldridge/Gasol front court is an interesting fit defensively.
Toronto Raptors: Lost Bismack Biyombo, re-signed DeMar DeRozan
I don’t know about you, but I wouldn’t have given DeMar five years, $145 million.
Utah Jazz: Lost Trevor Booker, signed Joe Johnson, traded for Boris Diaw
Love what Utah did this offseason. In acquiring George Hill, Johnson and Diaw, they added three veterans who can score, defend and balance the floor. They already had size, rebounding and rim protection, and have athleticism and scoring on the wing. They’re shaping up as one of the top teams in the West for 2016.
Washington Wizards: Lost Jared Dudley, Nene, re-signed Bradley Beal, signed Tomas Satoransky, Andrew Nicholson, Jason Smith, Ian Mahinmi
What a stat! Outside of that, one must be weary of giving Bradley Beal 5 years, $128 million. How likely is he to play 60% of games in those five years? Despite that, Mahinmi is a good player, but also a backup center you’re now paying $16 million. Nicholson and Smith are both PF/Cs, and the Wizards signed both players long-term. Unless Gortat is moved, I’m not sure I comprehend their strategy in the front court.
