2016 NBA Draft: Big Board
The 2015 NBA Draft will likely be remembered as one of the deepest drafts in NBA history. Towns and Porzingis played as franchise-level talents in their rookie seasons. Jahlil Okafor and D’Angelo Russell had strong seasons offensively as main cogs of an offense for 82 games. Outside of the top four picks, many rookies had strong performances throughout the season, including Willie Cauley-Stein, Emmanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, Myles Turner, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Larry Nance Jr., Norman Powell, Josh Richardson and more. They all project at-minimum as role players and there’s significant upside across the board.
Furthermore, the 2017 NBA Draft projects as excellent. 11 of the 15 top-15 projected picks in Draft Express’ 2017 Mock Draft are incoming college freshmen. There are a bevy of strong international prospects, and two lottery picks in Ivan Rabb and Thomas Bryant chose to stay in school.
Sandwiched between two potentially historic drafts, the 2016 Draft is certainly a weaker class than average. However, the top talent is strong and considering the lack of balance in pick ownership, draft night promises to provide many surprises. Below is my big board, and where I would select them in the first round. Since this year’s draft has few ‘guarantees’ and an anomalous number of raw talents with high upside, I would feel no hesitation making risk-laden selections that may buck conventional wisdom.
The Lottery
1. Ben Simmons (Wing/power forward, 20, 6'10", 240 lbs): Don’t kid yourself. Ben Simmons is the best player in this draft. At 20 years old, he is one of the most developed athletes to come into the NBA at his age in a long time. Simmons has elite end-to-end speed and lateral quickness. He has strong burst on his first step off the dribble, excellent passing instincts and good hands. His vision in transition is impeccable for his age, he plays unselfishly, and his ball handling for his size may be elite already. Defensively, when engaged, he’s shown an incredible ability to switch onto multiple positions, and use his quickness and hand-speed to force deflections and turnovers. He is an excellent rebounder as well, using his size and athleticism to box out smaller opponents and jump for high-point rebounds.
Simmons is not a consistent shooter despite shooting 67% from the line, and there have been off-court concerns about his work ethic and competitiveness. Despite these, he projects as a franchise player. Simmons will receive many LeBron comparisons due to his size and passing ability, but he lacks the athleticism to play above the rim and finish like James. He projects more as a Draymond Green, Blake Griffin or Paul Millsap type forward that can provide multi-categorical production. It’s easy to imagine him with averages of at least 15 points, 6–8 rebounds and 4–6 assists per game by year 2 or 3. The only players to average 15 ppg, 6 rpg and 5 apg this season were LeBron, Westbrook, Durant and Harden. If he can develop a jump shot (maybe shoot with the other hand?), he could be a top-5 or 10 NBA player.
2. Brandon Ingram (Wing, 19, 6'9", 200 lbs): Ingram projects as a long-term starter in the NBA. He possesses elite length for his position (7'3" wingspan) and had a high block rate at Duke. He is not particularly athletic and his frame inhibits his ability to finish at the rim, so most of his scoring ability (for now) results from his jump shot. He has a quick-release, but lacks the ability to consistently create offense off the dribble. He should be a scoring threat off screens and should be a beast in the mid-post when he adds to his frame. Ingram projects as something as a mix of Rudy Gay and Trevor Ariza. There are aspects of his game and skillset that resemble Paul George but his current athleticism may not allow him to reach that ceiling. Of the players in this draft he has one of the highest floors, but I’m not convinced he has All-Star potential due to lacking a skill that is particularly outstanding.
3. Timothe Luwawu (Wing, 21, 6'7", 205 lbs): For those who don’t know Luwawu, he’s a 21 year-old wing from France who played this year in the Adriatic League (The ABA League has produced NBAers such as Goran Dragic, Nik Vucevic, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, and more). He averaged 14.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg and 2.8 apg with 1.7 stls in 31 mpg this season while shooting 37% from 3 on 5.6 3PA per game. His draft projections are all over the place. ESPN has him outside the top 30, Draft Express has him mocked at the end of the lottery, and he didn’t rank in Kevin Pelton’s statistical top 50.
Offensively, Luwawu has flaws. He turns the ball over frequently and has a tendency to take deep 2s off the dribble, which infrequently go in. At the same time, he’s got a quick release, great balance and instincts offensively, and has a speedy first step and has shown fluidity getting to the rim. He’s also an enticing defensive prospect.
As an on-ball defender, Luwawu has excellent instincts, hands, agility and acceleration. He recovers quickly, is brilliant at dislodging the dribble, and has elite footwork.
There is something to be said for the level of competition, but Luwawu is a consistently engaged defender that also shows offensive potential and the ability to shoot from range both spotting up and off the dribble. His ball skills offensively are not where you’d hope at 21 years old, so you’ll see many Thabo Sefolosha comparisons. I disagree with this projection, and think he’s far more advanced offensively. He’s shown a combination of dribble moves, the ability to drive with both hands, shooting ability from long-range with volume and semi-advanced post skills for a wing. I’d compare him to a combination of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and fellow Frenchman Nic Batum.
4. Dragan Bender (Playmaking forward/center, 18.5, 7'1", 225 lbs): Bender, 7'1" and from Eastern Europe, will garner many comparisons to Kristaps Porzingis. He does not shy away from these comparisons, and rightfully so. In an NBA where bigs are valuable when they can defend the rim, shoot from the perimeter and have the mobility to switch onto guards, Bender projects as exactly what NBA teams are looking for in a stretch 4–5. Bender is extremely mobile and has elite rim-running ability. He’s shown incredible ability as a passer for his size in the open floor, and should be a shooting threat at minimum. Defensively, he has the quickness to guard wings and potentially ball-handling guards. For one of the youngest players in the draft, his shot-blocking timing is impressive and he uses his length well. His vertical athleticism, strength and ball-handling leave something to be desired, but he projects as a player that can make decisions with the ball in space on offense, and guard 1–5 on defense with elite rim-running skill. That’s a great player.
5. Jaylen Brown (Wing, 19.5, 6'7", 225 lbs): The freshman from Cal is probably the most disagreed upon prospect in the upcoming draft. At 6'7", 223 pounds with a 7' wingspan, Brown has the ideal size for an NBA wing. As a comparison, Jimmy Butler came into the draft an inch taller, the same weight and with a wingspan 4" shorter than Brown’s. One side of the argument, the analytics, points to Brown’s season at Cal and his poor assist/turnover ratio (2:3), a poor free throw percentage (65%), poor steal and block rates (didn’t average 1 of either), and a poor 3-point percentage (29%). He didn’t seem to have good awareness defensively, and it seemed that he was not the prospect he was hyped to be as the 3rd ranked freshman in his class.
Yet, I side with the others. His physical tools are incredible, he remains in the top 10 of every mock draft and I personally think he’ll go top 5. NBA players rave about him. His team at Cal was awful, with no guards that could shoot and two traditional big men in the front court. He’s flashed incredible athletic ability on both ends, he was a consensus top-5 prospect and at the top of his class in some cases, his physical tools are extraordinary, and his raw talent in terms of ball-handling, vision, explosion and burst have elite potential. He could be Jeff Green, or he could be Andre Iguodala, or he could be Jimmy Butler. It seems like it’s up to him. I’d bet on the guy.
6. Wade Baldwin IV (Point guard, 20, 6'4", 202 lbs): Baldwin, a 20 year-old point guard from Vanderbilt, possesses ideal NBA size (6'4" 200 lbs) with an elite wingspan (6'11.25"). Offensively, he projects well as a lead guard. He’s a good athlete, fast in transition and can play above the rim. He shot at least 40% from long-range over both years in school on at least 3 attempts per game. He has a quick release which should translate to the NBA and has the ability to shoot off the dribble. He is adept in the pick and roll, though not the best passer, and his handle needs work. Defensively, he can be lazy at times and often relied on his length, but has a high potential simply due to his wingspan. In an NBA where point guards are king and a draft with few lead guards, Baldwin could be Jrue Holiday on the high end or Pat Beverley on the low end, which could be just enough for some teams in the league.
7. Kris Dunn (Point guard, 22, 6'4", 205 lbs): Similar to Baldwin, Dunn has elite physical tools. He’s 6'4" with a 6'10" wingspan. Dunn also has elite speed in the open floor, and is probably the best athlete in the draft.
He can’t shoot; he leans side-to-side, backwards, doesn’t follow through, and has no consistent mechanics. The Spurs should trade up for this guy and turn him into the best guard in the league. He’s an average finisher, though reckless, and a decent passer in the half court. His athleticism allowed most of his shot creation in college, though his handle is above-average. His decision making offensively is an issue, and he turned the ball over a ton.
Defensively, he’s a beast. He’ll be a top perimeter defender in the league within his first few years due to his athletic and physical tools. He’s a great rebounder, has amazing quickness getting in passing lanes and with ball handlers, and has strong defensive instincts posting all-time steal rates in school. I think he’ll be like a more athletic Michael Carter-Williams on offense and Avery Bradley on defense. He’ll be a good player, but his shooting and decision making make it tough to build a team around him.
8. Tyler Ulis (Point guard, 20, 5'10", 150 lbs): I told you this was a weak draft for lead guards. Ulis measured at 5'10 with shoes at the 2016 Combine, the same height as Isaiah Thomas. The problem is he’s 30 pounds lighter. Despite that difference (it’s a big one), they are remarkably similar players. Ulis tore up the NCAA last season. He averaged 7 assists to 2 turnovers, had 1.5 steals per game while only committing 1.8 fouls over 37 minutes, and had a 24.2 PER. He declined from his freshman season from 3 but vastly increased his volume and showed potential from NBA range. Look at his college numbers compared to Thomas’.
Ulis has the toughness, quickness and is capable enough in areas that make up for his size. He’s a good finisher at the rim, has quick hands on defense and rarely turns the ball over. I like his chances.
9. Deyonta Davis (Power forward/center, 19.5, 6'11", 237 lbs): The power forward from Michigan State played 19 minutes per game his freshman season and performed well in that time. At 6'11, 237 pounds, his NBA career will depend on his ability to guard centers. He projects as a good rim protector, blocking 1.8 shots in his limited minutes. He has a 7'2.5" wingspan and 9'0.5" standing reach, is explosive above the rim, and is fluid running the floor. His shooting form is good, shooting decently on catch-and-shoot in college, and his FT% is not awful for a player his size (61%). He’s got great hands and moves well, and is a great rebounder using his length. He could be something between a Derrick Favors or Deandre Jordan on the high end, depending on if he can develop his jump shot, or maybe Tristan Thompson or Steven Adams on the lower end using his athleticism and length as an offensive rebounder, rim protector and rim-runner.
10. Buddy Hield (Wing, 22.5, 6'5", 212 lbs): I’m a huge Buddy Hield fan. I love his game, his work ethic and his swagger. But I’m not sure he’ll translate so well to the NBA. He is already 22, doesn’t possess elite size for a 2-guard, nor does he have a spectacular handle or decision making ability. He is not an adept rebounder, and is an mediocre defender at best. But he drained so many 3s last year he may have proved himself to be a knockdown shooter. He also showed an impressive ability to create his own shot when Oklahoma needed him late in games. His NBA career depends on if last season was a fluke or not. Can he be a 40%+ 3 point shooter off the catch for his career? If so, he can be JJ Redick. But his release isn’t as quick as Redick’s, and Redick’s track record in college was over a significant sample. Buddy took a huge volume of 3s this year, and he seems to be lights-out in workouts, so perhaps his scoring will translate. I wish him success and hope I’m wrong, but when you draft an-almost 23 year old you want to know exactly what you’re getting, and there are too many questions with Hield.
11. Denzel Valentine (Wing, 22.5, 6'6", 210 lbs): Valentine is a pretty clear-cut case. He’s an incredible passer with elite court awareness and is a knockdown shooter off the catch and off the bounce. He has the highest basketball IQ in the draft and in a motion offense could be a championship-level role player. He reminds of me Iguodala or Shaun Livingston on the Warriors in the sense that he’ll blend perfectly into a motion system with his elite decisionmaking. He’s limited athletically, so he’ll never be a lead scorer, and will likely top out as a mediocre defender, but in the right environment he’ll be a major asset.
12. Jamal Murray (Point guard/wing, 19, 6'5", 201 lbs): Murray is similar to Hield in that his strength is his scoring ability, especially from distance, but he provides little defensively and forces few turnovers. Murray’s first-step is average and he doesn’t display any particular quickness or explosion off the dribble. He’s a decent passer, and I expect teams to try him at point guard, but I don’t think he can be a lead ball handler. He rarely creates shots for his teammates and his assist to turnover ratio (1:1) showed much to be desired.
He’s been compared often to CJ McCollum, but McCollum possesses an elite isolation game and ball-handling ability, and uses those skills to create space in the mid-range. Murray had difficulty creating distance from defenders in school, though he fared decently in the pick and roll. He’s poor defensively, and doesn’t have the size to fight through screens, the instincts to guard in the pick and roll, or the quickness to stay with faster guards.
He’ll likely be a decent scorer in the NBA, but he should be taken in the back half of the lottery.
13. Chinanu Onuaku (Center, 19.5, 6'10", 245 lbs): The center from Louisville is projected as a 2nd round pick but is an analytics darling. His game is similar to Andrew Bogut, in that he has little offensive polish and is not an adept scorer, but has good vision and is a good passer both out of the post and on the move. He also projects extremely well defensively, with a massive frame that helps him control the paint on the glass and he has good timing protecting the rim. He moves well and has good lateral range, and could be a good fit in the modern NBA as a rim protector who isn’t a turnover liability on offense.
14. Marquese Chriss (Power forward, 19, 6'10" 233 lbs): Chriss shot up draft boards the last few months and sits at #4 on DraftExpress’ mock draft as of this writing. The freshman PF from Washington has only played basketball for a few years and has impressive athleticism and quickness. He has strong physical tools with a 7'0" wingspan and a 38.5" vertical leap. He’s quick on his feet and can finish around the rim. He’s shown decent range and ball-handling ability, and he has soft hands and is adept as the roll-man in PnR. He is not a good passer, and his shooting mechanics are not consistent, but he projects well offensively.
Defensively, there’s a lot to be desired. He’s one of the worst rebounding PFs ever in the NBA Draft, he was extremely foul-prone, and is prone to giving up isolation baskets. Though he has flashed some incredible moments of shot-blocking ability that result in highlight-reel plays, it lacks consistency. He’s a raw talent and should be drafted at the end of the lottery, at best.
The Rest of the 1st Round
15. Furkan Korkmaz (Wing, 19, 6'7", 185 lbs): Korkmaz is a Turkish wing who’s only 18 and about 190 pounds, but he’s got impressive explosiveness, a quick release and natural form on his jumper. He’s shown consistency from long-range and the ability to score in bunches, but that’s about it. He’s not much of a ball handler and hasn’t shown much mid-range game, and he’s been poor defensively in limited minutes. He’ll be a project.
16. Domantas Sabonis (Power forward/center, 20, 6'10", 230 lbs): Sabonis has suffered due to a below-average wingspan (6'10.5") and a lack of leaping ability, which has dismayed NBA executives hoping he could serve as a rim protector. Nonetheless, he’s a polished scorer in the post, scoring with both hands with excellent footwork. He expanded his range slightly this year, and despite a slow release, his jumper is surprisingly consistent. He’s a strong rebounder despite his lack of length due to his motor, aggressiveness, and ball-awareness. He reminds me of Jahlil Okafor, slightly less polished offensively but a better rebounder and with a higher motor.
17. Juan Hernangomez (Stretch power forward/wing, 21, 6'9", 220 lbs): The Spanish forward has prototypical size for an NBA wing/power forward (6'9" 220 lbs) and was impressive in the 2nd best professional basketball league on Earth in the ACB League. He runs the floor well and plays above the rim with ease. He’s explosive, can score in multiple ways: off the catch, on the offensive glass, in transition, and as a cutter. He’s an excellent rebounder for his size and position, and he’s quite efficient offensively. On the other hand, he’s a poor passer, struggles to guard on the perimeter, and likely will be a mediocre defender in the NBA.
18. Jakob Poeltl (Center, 21, 7'1", 240 lbs): Poeltl has decent athleticism for his size at 7'1" and 242 lbs, but has a weak lower body and doesn’t have impressive length for a center. In college, he was an efficient post scorer due to his soft touch with both hands and solid athleticism for a 7-footer, and scored a lot on put-backs and rolls to the rim. I’m skeptical about his ability to be nearly as effective on offense in the NBA, and considering his lack of shooting ability or any particular skill in shot-blocking, I wouldn’t take him in the lottery.
19. Patrick McCaw (Wing, 21, 6'7", 181 lbs): McCaw is projected in the 2nd round by DX but I love his chances in the NBA. At 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, he was a steal machine last season and surprisingly explosive despite being 180 lbs. He’s shown ability as a facilitator, finisher, and a shooter, and has great court awareness and quickness. He’s a raw product with a shaky handle, inconsistent shot mechanics, mediocre shot-selection, and needs to fill out his frame, but he has a ton of potential and worth a 1st round pick in a weak draft.
20. Gary Payton II (Point guard, 23.5, 6'3", 184 lbs): Almost 24 years old, Payton II’s upside is limited at this point. But like McCaw, in a weak draft, I’ll take a chance on a proven perimeter defender. Payton has great length with a 6'7" wingspan, has incredible explosiveness and athleticism, and has great hands on defense. He’s a bad shooter, has played high-level competition for a limited time, and can suffer from lapses in effort on the defensive end, but he’s extremely athletic with a great pedigree.
21. Caris LeVert (Point guard/wing, 22, 6'7", 191 lbs): A college career marred by injuries, LeVert was a lottery pick at one point in his time at Michigan. At 6'7" with the potential to play any position 1–3, LeVert has great physical tools, ball skills, court awareness and can do mostly everything offensively. He has an explosive first step, can score off the dribble and off the catch, and was a brilliant passer for his size. If he’s healthy, he’ll be a steal for someone. It’s worth a chance.
22. Henry Ellenson (Stretch power forward, 19.5, 7'0", 242 lbs): Projected as a lottery pick, I’m not a huge believer in Ellenson. With decent measurables, standing above 6'10" with almost a 7'3" wingspan, and decent mobility, he projects well as a 4/5 hybrid in the modern NBA. He scored in a variety of ways, both in the mid post and from the perimeter. However, his shot selection, especially from long range was too frequent and inaccurate (29%). His most impressive ability is his ball handling and scoring in isolation despite his lack of explosiveness. I’m sure he’ll receive a lot of Kevin Love comparisons, especially due to both of their rebounding prowesses, but Love is far more efficient offensively and a much better passer. He also possesses poor awareness and quickness defensively, and will likely be cooked nightly by small-ball 4s until he retires.
23. Skal Labissiere (Stretch power forward/center, 20, 7'0", 216 lbs): Another projected lottery pick, Labissiere has only been playing basketball for 5–6 years. He’s got a 9-foot standing reach with almost a 7'3" wingspan, and has great athleticism and physical tools. He has a great jump shot, with impressive form and balance, and should be a threat from the perimeter, which should be an asset at his size. Since he’s new to the game, his decision making and playmaking ability leaves something to be desired and he’s a raw talent. Defensively, he’s also a mystery due to the limited sample size and raw ability. He’s shown shot-blocking flashes, but also flashes of poor awareness and instincts. He’s extremely foul-prone at this point, but contrarily not very tough. He’ll need to fill out his frame and polish up a lot, and I wouldn’t take him in the lottery.
24. Cheick Diallo (Power forward/center, 20, 6'9", 219 lbs): Diallo is an interesting case since he barely played this season at Kansas. He was a monster in limited minutes and has some of the best physical tools in the class at a 7'4" wingspan with a 9'1" standing reach while only standing at 6'9". He’s pretty much a rim-runner at this point, scoring on rolls to the rim and put-backs. Defensively, he has a ton of promise, with a ridiculously high motor that makes him a beast on the glass and results in a lot of blocked shots. He’s shown the ability to switch onto perimeter players, and has a high defensive upside. He’s a raw talent with a limited sample of minutes, but definitely worth a first-round selection.
25. Ante Zizic (Center, 19, 7'0", 250 lbs): Zizic is a 7-footer, weighing 250 pounds from the Adriatic League. He’s got a 9'3" standing reach, and plays above the rim a ton offensively. He’s extremely physical, runs the floor surprisingly well and quite aggressively, and has a seemingly never-ending motor. He’s a raw product, but he’s shown nice touch on offense for a 7-footer, is incredibly aggressive and produced effectively in a strong European league.
26. Diamond Stone (Center, 19, 6'10", 255 lbs): The freshman center from Maryland’s stock took a hit this season, as he was projected in the lottery before the year. A highly touted prospect, he’s got great strength and physical tools weighing over 250 pounds with a 7'3" wingspan. He’s decently polished in the post, rarely shoots from the mid-range, is an average rebounder defensively and wasn’t particularly impressive as a shot blocker.
27. Ivica Zubac (Center, 19, 7'1", 265 lbs): Another center from the Adriatic League, Zubac is an enormous Croatian that has entered the league’s attention within the last year. He has soft hands and good touch and seems to be a decent offensive option around the rim. He was excellent both at the U16 and U18 European Championships and should go late 1st round.
28. Malachi Richardson (Wing, 20.5, 6'6", 200 lbs): Richardson shot up draft boards due to an impressive tournament performance in March, his solid 7'0" wingspan for an NBA wing, and flashes of playmaking and defensive ability despite being a raw talent. He’s a streaky shooter and historically inefficient from 2pt range, but has shown the ability to create his own shot. A team that needs a wing that can score in isolation will take him in the 1st round, maybe the lottery, but he feels like Dion Waiters to me.
29. Brice Johnson (Power forward, 22, 6'11", 210 lbs): Johnson’s upside is limited at 22 years old, but he’s an incredible athlete, a polished scorer around the rim and plays explosively. He’s only 6'9" barefoot with a 6'11" wingspan, which could limit his effectiveness in the NBA, but he’s a great finisher offensively despite a lack of strength. He’s not a great shooter, struggles with foul trouble and isn’t much of a playmaker. There is a spot for him in the league but I’m not totally sure where.
30. Zhou Qi (Center, 20.5, 7'2", 218 lbs)/Thon Maker (Power forward, 19, 7'1", 216 lbs): It’s difficult for me to project either of these guys, but they deserve mentioning. The Chinese CBA ranges greatly in competition, and at 220 pounds Qi’s frame projects poorly against NBA centers. Nonetheless, he has dominated for two seasons and projects well statistically. In Maker’s case, having never played against NCAA or international competition it’s extremely subjective when projecting him as an NBA player. However, he’s got a high motor and has flashed some shooting ability for his size, which could make him an interesting pick in a shallow draft class.
Overall, this year’s class is pretty weak. A vast majority of 1st round picks project as role players on good teams on the high-end, and there’s limited star potential. With the Sixers and Celtics possessing a handful of picks between them, disagreement amongst the league on a variety of prospects, a lack of consistent impact players, and the exploding salary cap, I expect a lot of trades and movement throughout the draft. I also expect GMs to draft players far ahead of expectation, in the hope that high-upside risks pay off in a year of uncertainties. There will be a lot of misplaced hats, many disappointed faces in the Green Room and Woj will reassert his dominance. Then a week later, free agency will be here. The NBA never stops.
