A Defense of the Derrick Rose Trade
This afternoon, Shams Charania of The Vertical reported the Knicks would acquire Derrick Rose.
The Knicks are sending out $22,480,717.00 in salary this season and $55,9480,120 in total salary through 2019 and returning $22,338,948.00 in salary this season that expires next summer. Knicks Twitter subsequently freaked out due to a myriad of reasons; most of them valid, some of them due to misconceptions. My goal is to understand the Knicks’ thought process behind the trade to determine its value for the team, and also to determine what this means for their thought process this summer and moving forward into upcoming seasons.
Most of the Knicks fans’ animus about the deal comes from what they gave away. Robin Lopez was signed last summer to an affordable 4-year contract, and Jerian Grant showed flashes of promise towards the end of last season. Now he enters a famed list of guards the Knicks have drafted and subsequently dealt over the terms of their rookie contracts.
On the other end, many Twitter GMs consider Rose a liability in the trade market, let alone an asset that would command a 1st-round pick and a 28-year old rim protector. Rose is embroiled in a civil lawsuit for sexual assault, an obvious injury risk and has never reclaimed his status from his MVP-level play years ago. But much of this is narrative on Rose’s game and reflects a lack of perspective on the Knicks long-term situation and recent moves.
In a season where the Bulls changed coaches, suffered tons of injuries and from general dysfunction, Rose’s play on the back end of the season showed somewhat of a return-to-form in terms of his finishing ability, explosiveness and efficiency. After the All-Star Break, he shot 47% from the field, 37.5% from long range on decent volume, and was significantly more efficient. Overall, for the whole season, he took 14% of his shots from 3, the lowest rate of his career which is a positive for a largely inefficient 3-point shooter. He has never been a turnover-prone ball-handler or decision-maker, and despite a drop-off due to injury, he remains one of the league’s more athletic lead guards. Rose was under massive expectations as the hometown hero in Chicago and 1st overall pick, and endured a tumultuous experience there over the last few years. It’s reasonable to expect he could use a fresh start.
Rose is also on a 1-year deal. He’ll make $21 million this season, and become a free agent next year. He’ll be motivated to play well and stay healthy so he can sign another long term deal. Another reason for acquiring Rose is this summer’s weak point guard free agent class. Headlined by Mike Conley and Rajon Rondo, most of the guards are older or would provide little upside relative to cost, and the Knicks clearly have no interest in signing someone from this class to a long term contract, especially in the new salary cap market where mostly every FA will be overpaid. Trading for Rose, and giving away long-term money to do it allows the Knicks extreme flexibility for next summer when Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, and more will become unrestricted free agents. It also upgrades them at their most-desperate position without dipping into this summer’s cap space.
This trade must also be seen through the prism of new Head Coach Jeff Hornacek. In Phoenix, Hornacek found success with multiple athletic guards, including Goran Dragic, Isaiah Thomas, and Eric Bledsoe. None of his guards in Phoenix were particularly efficient from long-range, but all blossomed under a transition style that attempted to score early in possessions. In 2013–14, Goran Dragic had a career year with the Suns. He shot 5.5 FTs per game, scored a career-high 20.3 ppg on 51% shooting with 6 apg. He was remarkably efficient and helped lead a team that many thought were heading for the lottery to 48 wins. Since being traded to Miami, he hasn’t matched his statistics with Hornacek under a slower style.
Under Hornacek, Rose fits a similar mold to his guards in Phoenix. They weren’t high-volume 3-point shooters, but more transition focused guards that drive to the rim and thrive in pick-and-roll. Rose projects to have success in a Hornacek offense. While Jerian Grant finished the season well and showed a similar driving ability and creation out of PnR, he was maddeningly inconsistent for a 23 year-old guard that spent four years in college. It’s certainly a lot to expect from a rookie PG to be even close to efficient, but from the Knicks’ perspective it’s easy to see the other side. Grant wasn’t a freshman project like Jamal Murray will be. He had experience and was not playable for points of the season. He may find a niche in the NBA, but it’s a rarity to find a PG that develops into a high-level starter having shot as poorly he did in his rookie season at 23 years-old.
Also leaving the Knicks are Jose Calderon and Robin Lopez. Lopez is a good player on a fine contract, and Calderon was a liability all season. Phil signed Lopez last summer to a 4-year deal, presumably because Jackson did not expect Porzingis to be a competent full-time center so quickly. Lopez became an asset in an inflated market, and was traded. That’s fine. Many fans are upset because they think he could have been turned into something more valuable, perhaps a draft pick. That may be true, but the Knicks know this is a weak draft and they likely won’t need to give up major assets to enter it, since Philadelphia and Boston are almost forced to trade some of their stockpiles. Last year the Knicks traded Tim Hardaway Jr. for the 19th pick in a loaded draft. Robin Lopez isn’t getting you a top-10 pick, so it makes sense to move him for a tangible player, especially a high-upside risk that retains flexibility.
Furthermore, and despite Lopez’s talent and competency as a starting center, I’m not sure it would have made sense to retain him, especially once next summer comes around. He is mostly a slow, lumbering rim protector who isn’t a great passer, and would likely struggle in Hornacek’s offense. He’s a great rebounder, and is a net-positive on defense, but is he really the starting center on a championship team? It’s hard to say so. Compound that with the facts that he’s easily replaceable, that Willy Hernangomez is joining the team this offseason, and that Porzingis can spend more time at center, and it becomes understandable why he was moved right now.
There will be questions nonetheless. Why not wait until you find something more valuable in return? Was this a poor use of a legitimate asset in an exploding market? Is it possible to find an adequate replacement for a similar cost? Lopez only becomes more valuable next week when the cap spikes; was this an anxious move to satisfy the fanbase? These questions are valid and probably the most trepidatious aspects of the deal.
Looking forward, the Knicks need a replacement for Lopez in their starting lineup. Having acquired Lopez, it’s likely Joakim Noah moves on from his time with the Bulls. It’s been reported that he “has a rapport” with Phil Jackson and Noah is one of the 61 people Jackson follows on Twitter. Noah is coming off another injury and could likely be had at a decent price for this market. He’s a NYC native, an all-time great teammate, a good rim protector, rebounder and passer and would provide some much-needed vocal leadership in the Knicks locker room. The Knicks will also likely sniff around Pau Gasol due to the Jackson connection, and Dwight Howard is reportedly interested in joining the team. I hope, and expect them to pursue the Noah route first. I don’t think Phil wants to put Rose, Carmelo and Howard on the same team, and Howard is looking for a long-term max deal. Signing Noah would likely be a 2-year contract for far less with an opt-out, and would retain flexibility on both sides as the cap explodes once again next summer.
This summer, the Knicks retained all of their cap space (likely around $32–33M) and increase their future flexibility. As of this moment, they have only $32.8M in total guaranteed salary (Carmelo, Porzingis, O’Quinn) entering the summer of 2017 where the cap is projected to explode to approximately $108 million or higher. They will commit more salary this summer with certain players returning, free agency and potential draft additions, but project to have at least $50 million in cap space going into the next free agency period, which promises to be one of the deepest classes in history.
They didn’t give away any future picks, and added some depth in the 2017 draft, also projected as one of the deepest in history. They are taking a risk on a former-MVP who showed flashes of his former self, who will satisfy and likely please the team’s superstar and franchise rookie, and also has a ton to prove on a 1-year contract in a system that should benefit his talents. The trade isn’t perfect, but no trade is. Rose on a 1-year contract is a worthwhile risk and is a decent first step in getting the Knicks back into the playoffs.
Yes, the Knicks traded seven years of basketball for one. But they also created the opportunity to give those seven years to players that give them a better chance to win a championship. Maybe Derrick Rose needed a fresh start and a contract year to get his legs back, and maybe he’ll recoup his value and the trade looks like a win. Or maybe he’ll tear an ACL and Phil looks like a moron. But either way, the Knicks have no obligation to him past next summer, have opened an obscene amount of cap space, and brought in their most athletic, exciting, and potentially their best point guard in years. And all they really gave away to do it was Tim Hardaway Jr. and $14 million of space from Amare’s old contract. It’s really not that bad.
