Analyzing the Orlando Magic
Note: All stats from NBA.com
In late October, I projected the Magic to win 38 or more games and finish 6th in the East. They are currently 16–22, and the team I projected most incorrectly in the preseason. I aim to reflect on my prediction, analyze where the Magic have struggled, and identify areas of improvement.
Misplaced Confidence
Much of my early optimism about Orlando was founded in the idea of zigging when other teams zagged. Their front court rotation is one of the deepest in the league with considerable talent, and allowed for versatility with smaller lineups (Aaron Gordon/Jeff Green at the four) as well as more traditional ‘twin tower’ combinations featuring Serge Ibaka at the four and either Bismack Biyombo or Nikola Vucevic at center. Unfortunately, I overestimated contributions from Mario Hezonja and Stephen Zimmerman, whom I watched in Summer League and left quite impressed. Furthermore, I may have been a year too soon on projecting breakout seasons from Gordon and Fournier, who have both improved but not to the level Orlando requires.
I do not think the Magic’s poor performance this season is an indictment of the style they chose to play. Over mildly significant samples, certain two-big combinations have proved effective for Orlando. The Gordon-Ibaka-Vucevic combination has a Net Rating of +4.3 in 300 minutes with a 56.7 true shooting % (TS%). Furthermore, the Payton-Ibaka-Biyombo combination is +3.9 in 177 minutes. There are peripheral statistics that also indicate positive developments for the team as a whole. For example, in games decided by 10 points or less, they are 11–9. They are 11–5 when scoring 100 points. They have the third most catch-and-shoot attempts in the league, and are fifth in the league in potential assists. So why have they been so inconsistent?
Finding Causation for Unexpected, Suboptimal Performance
In my opinion, Orlando’s biggest problem this season has been offensive execution. They have a 101.0 offensive rating, tied for third worst in the league. As mentioned above, while they are fifth in the league in potential assists, they are only 14th in total assists. While they have the third most catch-and-shoot attempts in the league, they shoot 37.9 FG% and 50.7 eFG% on those chances, good for 18th and 22nd respectively. This indicates that while Orlando is generating efficient scoring opportunities and move the ball effectively, their execution and finishing ability are both unsatisfactory.
Specifically, Orlando’s pick and roll offense has been ineffective throughout the season. In PnR, the ball-handler is scoring at .78 points per possession (ppp), and the roll-man is scoring .92 ppp. That is good for 23rd and 29th respectively in the league. Orlando is mostly weighed down on the ball-handling side by Elfrid Payton, who scores .72 ppp in 5.3 PnR possessions per game. Both DJ Augustin and Evan Fournier have scored above .90 ppp handling the ball in PnR, better than the 70th percentile for the NBA.
As the roll-man, neither Biyombo nor Vucevic are effective options. On 26.7% of his possessions, Biyombo finishes as the roll-man and scores at .88 ppp. Vucevic is the roll-man on 23.6% of his possessions with a .89 ppp. Both marks place each of them in the bottom 30% of the league.
Since Orlando has struggled finding scoring in catch-and-shoot opportunities as well as in direct chances in pick-and-roll, they have resorted to less efficient modes of offense. Orlando runs post-up possessions 8.2% of the time on offense, the 9th highest rate in the league, but only scores .83 ppp, which is in the bottom fifth of the league in terms of overall efficiency.
Another factor that sticks out is a lack of defensive activity. Orlando is last in the league in both loose balls recovered per game (4.4) and deflections per game (12.9). They are also 24th in the league in opponent turnover percentage. This is surprising, considering Frank Vogel’s defensive reputation as head coach, as well as the length and athleticism throughout the roster (Payton, Gordon, Ibaka, Biyombo, etc). Their difficulty forcing turnovers contributes to their offensive struggles, as they are less prone to score easy baskets. They are 19th in the NBA in points off turnovers and 23rd in points in the paint. Also, while they have the 8th most transition possessions in the league, Orlando only scores 1.03 ppp on those opportunities, 5th worst in the NBA. As they deflect more passes and recover more loose balls, they will force more turnovers, in turn leading to cleaner transition opportunities and a more efficient offense.
Areas of Improvement Without Roster Changes
Without making a trade or addition from the waiver market, Orlando has opportunities to improve their current standing with lineup ingenuity. Two of the three most prominent five-man combinations for Orlando this season have offensive ratings under 100. Since offensive execution is the primary cause for their struggles, their focus should be on maximizing scoring potential for their starting lineup.
My suggestion would include moving Biyombo back to the bench, starting Jodie Meeks at the two, and moving Fournier, Gordon and Ibaka one position up. The Magic perform their best when Meeks, Payton and Gordon are on the court individually (-2, -2, -2.7 overall NetRtg), and their offensive rating rests above the team’s overall 101.0 number when each are playing.
However, Meeks and Fournier have not seen significant minutes together. An alternative that is more familiar would result in replacing Biyombo with Jeff Green. The three-man combination of Payton-Green-Ibaka is +3.2 over 340 minutes this season, and the four-man combo of Payton-Fournier-Green-Ibaka is +5.4 over 259 minutes with an incredible DefRtg of 96.9. Ibaka has spent extremely limited time this season as the team’s primary rim protector, however, in those minutes the team has been spectacular on both ends.
The combination of Augustin-Payton-Fournier-Green-Ibaka has a 124.8 offensive rating in 12 minutes. Payton-Fournier-Green-Gordon-Ibaka is +24.4 in 12 minutes. Payton-Meeks-Green-Gordon-Ibaka had a 155.7 offensive rating in 10 minutes over three games earlier this season. In a paltry eight minutes, the lineup of Augustin-Fournier-Green-Gordon-Ibaka has a 136.5 ORtg. While both Vucevic and Biyombo are poor finishers in pick and roll, Ibaka is their only big who scores over 1.0 ppp on such opportunities. It’s clear that in limited minutes, Ibaka can be a masterfully effective ‘stretch-five’. His combination of range and rim protection is obviously rare, however, that skill-set is not maximized unless he plays more center.
One may think that playing Ibaka at center would take time away from two of the Magic’s more talented players at their natural position, Biyombo and Vucevic. However, in 31 games this season and 256 minutes, the two-man combination of Biyombo and Vucevic has a defensive rating of 101.7 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 24.3%. If extrapolated to the entire team, this would place the Magic tied for 2nd in defense and top 10 in offensive rebounding in the NBA. If played off the bench, this frontcourt combination would dominate the offensive glass against weak opposing forwards, allow Vucevic to continue operating in his role as the primary bench weapon, and keep a quality rim protector on the floor at all times.
While the offense of the Vuc-Biyombo combination has been extremely poor to date, the opportunity it provides to the starting lineup makes the sacrifice worth it. Furthermore, that offensive inefficiency may be overstated. As I mentioned earlier, the Gordon-Ibaka-Vucevic combination has a Net Rating of +4.3 in 300 minutes with a 56.7 TS% this season, providing evidence that Vucevic next to a rim protector can also be efficient offensively.
Theorizing About Adjusted Personnel
Obviously I am not privy to the team’s locker room dynamic, or internal strategy regarding key personnel. It is entirely possible Ibaka wishes not to play center full time, and it is equally possible that the suggested acquisitions below are untenable based on Orlando’s future plans and the availability of players on other teams. Nonetheless, should the Magic make a trade before the deadline, they should target two areas: a point guard who can score in pick-and-roll, and a spot-up shooter on the wing. Replacing some of Payton’s possessions with a more effective scorer may open space for the shooters spread around the screen, and adding an effective three-point shooter will help convert more catch-and-shoot opportunities.
On the point guard side, I identified three players who have been effective on decent volume in PnR that are also on attractive contracts. Tim Frazier signed a 2-year, $4.1 million contract this offseason, and is in the 62nd percentile in pick-and-roll scoring as the ball-handler this season on 5.4 possessions per game. He recently fell out of New Orleans’ rotation and is an intriguing young player. Darren Collison is in the 55th percentile on 4.4 possessions per game and his contract expires this summer. Shelvin Mack is also an unrestricted free agent this summer scoring .87 ppp in PnR, good for the 66th percentile. If Orlando desires a longer-term answer, LeBron James recently expressed his desire to acquire another point guard. This can be read as a foreboding gesture regarding rookie Kay Felder, who is scoring an impressive 1.0 ppp in 3.9 possessions per game in pick-and-roll, which is in the league’s top 10% despite limited minutes and his unimpressive stature.
From a spot-up perspective, there are a variety of low-cost options the Magic could look to acquire. The Hawks reportedly are seeking two 2nd-round picks for Tim Hardaway Jr, who is scoring 1.04 ppp on spot-up opportunities this season (67th percentile). Hardaway is a restricted free agent this summer, so any team that acquires him must weigh the opportunity cost of paying him a potentially significant contract in the offseason. Wayne Ellington averages 1.13 ppp on spot-ups this season and will only be on the books for $6 million next season before his contract expires. Terrence Ross has an eFG% of 60.6% on spot-ups this year, and has long been rumored as a trade piece for Toronto in their elusive quest to find a big to slot next to Jonas Valanciunas. Seth Curry signed to the room exception last summer, and continues to bring an efficient scoring punch off the bench. He scores 1.08 ppp on spot-ups and places in the top half of the league in PnR.
Any of the suggested players above could be effective in helping to space Orlando’s offense, and lead to more efficient scoring opportunities. The team has strong ball movement and defensive potential, however, they struggle to finish possessions and lack a reliable primary creator on offense. To overcome the absence of a top-15 scorer, Orlando should either adjust their existing lineups, or supplement their rotation with players who can score in pick-and-roll as well as capitalize on catch-and-shoot opportunities.
