Finding The Next James Harden
Howard Beck’s recent piece on the Rockets for Bleacher Report included an interesting anecdote about an internal statistic that Houston presented for the article. Beck wrote the following and included the graphic below:
“Since his Houston debut in 2012, Harden has scored a league-leading 8,306 points on threes, free throws and shots at the rim, according to the Rockets. The Warriors’ Stephen Curry is a distant second, at 7,116.
This season, Harden has accumulated a league-high 1,067 points in those categories, accounting for 87 percent of his scoring.”
This internal statistic is something likely collected by other teams, however, it is not a number that is made readily available for the public. It is a simple measure of efficiency. Who maximizes their scoring with the most efficient shot attempts? While true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage do well to incorporate the importance of threes and free throws in terms of overall scoring, could this ‘internal’ statistic can help identify players who could potentially shoulder a heavier scoring load on a different team?
As the Rockets were able to identify Harden as a player who could score the way they desired, through an efficient mix of layups, threes and free throws, a front office could theoretically use the same method to find the ‘next James Harden’ when evaluating players. Often, a current top-10 or top-15 player is not available for trade, and one needs to look past the league’s elite to find a young star who could one day become a team’s centerpiece. With the trade deadline approaching, I analyzed this season’s numbers (current through January 21), using dunk and layup statistics from NBAsavant.com, in an effort to imitate Houston’s strategy in targeting Harden as their franchise player. The players selected must satisfy three constraints:
- The player is 23 or younger
- The player is not the franchise centerpiece
- The player ranks in the top 30 in total scoring from 3, FTs and on layups
These players are intriguing trade targets worth paying a significant price to acquire. It’s unlikely their teams would easily part with these players; they are all excellent, young scorers who are core pieces to their respective franchises. However, should the offering team value that player as a future lead-scorer, they may be compelled to compile a package worth considering. I will include screenshots from the dataset, but the list can be found here.
Jabari Parker
The Celtics reportedly were rebuffed in their attempt to acquire Parker before last year’s draft, and he has been spectacular in his third season in Milwaukee. He ranks 14th in the league in points from the line, three and at the hoop, and is shooting 40% from three on 3.5 attempts per game. Prior to this season, Parker had shot 51 total threes in his career 101 NBA games. He attacks the rim relentlessly, and has scored the 5th most points in the NBA off layups and dunks.
Any attempt to acquire Parker would necessitate a major attachment of assets, since he is owed under $7 million next season and will enter restricted free agency afterwards, where he will command a max contract. Obviously, he is a prized piece for Milwaukee and would be extremely difficult to pry away. However, a case could be made for a creative offer when looking at their payroll.
Should Greg Monroe opt in to his $18 million player option next season, they would owe $41 million to the center position between Monroe, Miles Plumlee and John Henson. A team willing to take on one of those contracts alongside Parker, while offering significant, unprotected draft compensation along with $20–25 million of above-average talent could be enough to theoretically begin a negotiation.
Parker may be the league’s best candidate for a Harden-like breakout in the coming years. This season, he has reduced mid-range jumpers (10–16 ft) to 5% of his overall shot attempts, increased his 3-pt attempt rate to 22%, as well as his free throw rate to 26%. When he is off the court, the Bucks are 7.6 points worse per 100 possessions than when he plays. He has reduced his turnover percentage to 8% despite increasing his usage percentage to 26%, has a career-high assist rate, and has increased his player efficiency rating (PER) from 14.8 to 19.5.
Parker projects extremely well as a combo four who should thrive in the modern NBA and have the ability to lead a team offensively. In his third season in the NBA, he compares favorably per 100 possessions to the third seasons of Carmelo Anthony in Denver, Blake Griffin in Los Angeles, Paul Pierce in Boston, and Paul George in Indiana in overall offensive output and efficiency.
Bradley Beal
Beal is 20th in the Harden Stat boasting a career-high 58% true shooting percentage in 2016–17. He’s taking a career-high 43% of his field goal attempts from three, shooting only 9% of his attempts from the mid-range, and has a career-high 30% free-throw rate. Like Parker, he also has a career-low turnover rate despite a record-high usage percentage, and also has increased his PER above 19 for the first time in his career.
Beal is 15th in the NBA in points off three pointers, and has some of the most versatility in his scoring ability from long-range. If paired with a big who sets a strong screen, like Marcin Gortat, Beal is deadly off-the-bounce in pick-and-roll. He scores 1.01 points per possession as the ball handler in PnR on five possessions per game according to the NBA, good for the league’s 90th percentile. Getting caught in a screen for Beal leaves any defense exposed.
Beal is also effective moving away from the ball rolling off a screen, and scores the fourth-most points per game off screens in the league. He has a remarkably quick release and consistently shows excellent balance through the shot while on the move.
Beal rarely works in isolation, only 1.8 possessions per game, and is more comfortable coming off screens and handling in pick and roll. However, he excels in creating space with his step back jumper driving left. He can tend to push off the defender with his right arm, but it’s rarely called and creates the desired effect, for now.
Beal recently signed a five-year max with Washington, but they will be in a bind if they fail to make a move before this offseason. Otto Porter has enjoyed a breakout season, and may command a max contract this summer. The Wizards already owe Beal, Ian Mahinmi, John Wall, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morriss, Andrew Nicholson and Tomas Satoransky approximately a combined $90 million in the 2018/19 season, and also have Jason Smith and Kelly Oubre locked up for the next couple seasons. Paying Porter the max will only increase that number.
Unless Washington believes their current core can compete for a championship in the next three seasons, they will be constrained in free agency to improve their team, and will only have the opportunity to do so through trade and the draft.
It is certainly hard to envision a scenario where trading Beal moves the Wizards closer to a championship. However, John Wall is only 26 and locked onto one of the most friendly contracts in the league ($16.8 million next season, $17.8 million in 2018/19). He and Beal were never rumored to have the best relationship, and Beal’s injury history could make him a gettable piece.
Like Milwaukee, Washington could attach some of their dead long-term money to Beal to help free space and return incredible value for a 23 year-old guard locked up through his prime. Beal could be the centerpiece of a DeMarcus Cousins trade, who played with Wall in college. He could be an ideal target for Philadelphia, armed with a Lakers draft pick, their own selection, and a litany of associated assets. Regardless, Beal has been brilliant this season and has a bright future as a top-tier scorer should he remain healthy.
Zach LaVine
LaVine falls in 21st in the Harden statistic. He is 20th in the NBA in points from layups and dunks, and 13th in points from three pointers.
He is only 21 years old, and is likely the most attainable piece mentioned in this article. As the third-banana behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, he may be less of an untouchable cornerstone than Parker or Beal. Despite the lowest usage of the three, LaVine has shown the ability to score consistently with efficiency in his third season in the NBA, and has steadily improved each season.
While maintaining a usage percentage above 20% since his rookie year, LaVine’s PER has increased from 11.3 to 14.3 to 15.1 this season. His true shooting percentage has increased from 51.5% to 54.8% and is 58.2% this season, and his turnover rate has dropped from 20.4% to 12.9% and is a career-low 10.2%.
LaVine has increased the amount of threes he attempts per-36 minutes from 3.2 in his rookie season to 5.0 last year and sits now at 6.5 long-range shots. When he entered the NBA, threes accounted for 25% of his attempts. His sophomore season that became 33%, and threes account for 44% of his field goal attempts in 2016–17. He shot 38% from the corner three his rookie season, and has shot over 45% on such attempts the prior two years. His offensive rating and offensive box plus-minus have followed suit with this incremental improvement, increasing from 95 to 113 and -1.7 to 2.6 respectively since his rookie season.
LaVine rarely, if ever shoots from mid-range. He has shot less than 10% of attempts from 10–16 feet since entering the NBA, and this season has shot less than 11% of his attempts from everywhere in between 3–16 feet. While he may take a long-two occasionally, a massive 70% of his field goal attempts come from behind the three-point arc or within three feet.
LaVine is predisposed to scoring from efficient spots on the floor, and while he fails to reach the foul line as often as Parker or Beal, he simply has the ball in his hands less, and LaVine has the athleticism to improve this number given more possessions. As evidence for this fact, LaVine had an impressive 26% free throw rate his rookie season, where he spent 94% of his total minutes at point guard, according to basketball reference.
LaVine is only 21 with three years of experience, which only adds to his allure. He has only played off the ball, his natural position, for two seasons having spent his rookie year at the point. That season, LaVine committed 108 ‘bad pass’ turnovers in 77 games. This season, he has committed three ‘bad pass’ turnovers’ in 41 games, showing more significant improvement over time. As opposed to Beal and Parker, LaVine also has no injury history, having only missed nine of the 208 games he has been eligible to play.
In considering the potential haul for LaVine, one must recognize that Minnesota currently sits below the salary floor. LaVine’s rookie-scale contract will expire after next season, and he will enter restricted free agency and be eligible for a max contract. For now, however, one could theoretically construct an offer for LaVine that does not need to match his current salary. A team could package multiple players along with draft assets in exchange for LaVine, since Minnesota is not in danger of rising over the salary cap.
Without doubt, to acquire LaVine, along with either Parker or Beal, a team would have to construct an impressive offering of young players, established stars, draft assets or a combination of some of those three. However, it’s possible that these players fall into a tier below ‘untouchable’, and could be had for the right price. If a team uses a similar method to Houston in their acquisition of James Harden, they may see one of Parker, Beal, or LaVine as a piece worth gambling on. That risk may very well pay off.
