Luka Doncic Scouting Report

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Luka Doncic (Ball handler, 19, 6'8", 228 lbs)

Statistical Profile

Strengths

Doncic is the best prospect in the 2018 Draft and my highest rated prospect since Anthony Davis entered the league in the 2012 Draft. In a league where shooting, passing and positional versatility carries maximum utility, Doncic is a perfect fit in the modern NBA. Many prognosticators worry about how his game will translate from Europe, however, it is important to contextualize the fact that Real Madrid won the EuroLeague, the second best basketball competition in the world, and that Doncic was Madrid’s best player and the league MVP at 19 years old.

Doncic projects as a primary ball handler in the NBA. He can score from three levels and leverages superb body control and knowledge of angles to escape defenders and create separation. In this way, he is much like James Harden or Manu Ginobli in his ability to attack space without elite quickness. His shot profile is vast — he prefers a step-back three point jump shot, but can catch and shoot, post-up, shoot off the dribble to either side and run off screens. He has both unlimited range and above-average finishing ability around the rim. He can play off the ball if necessary and has shown flashes as a top-tier cutter. His physical style of play also allows him to get to the free throw line at a high rate where he scores efficiently.

Doncic is the best passing prospect since Ben Simmons and may be more advanced at the same age. He facilitates at an elite level in pick and roll and possesses a great feel for the game which is evident in his patience and decision making while operating as a ball handler in ball screens. His instinctual game is aided by his remarkable ability to see the floor and make anticipatory passes. While he is methodical in half-court offense, he is an excellent rebounder and thrives in transition. Defensively, he has a nose for the ball and has excellent instincts paired with quick hands.

Weaknesses

Doncic is an average NBA athlete, perhaps below average for his size. He cannot rely on his quickness or first step to beat defenders, and must utilize his skill and craftiness to get to the rim. This limits his current ability as an isolation scorer.

Defensively, he gives questionable effort at times and lacks high-level foot speed. It is fair to wonder how much of this was due to his conditioning and his offensive burden for Real Madrid. He is not skilled at close-outs, often approaching the ball handler upright and out of position which allows blow-bys and forces unnecessary help rotations when he’s beat off the dribble. The most difficult learning curve in the NBA will be figuring out how to overcome his deficiencies when it comes to length, lateral quickness and vertical explosiveness. His size will compensate for some of these issues, but he has plenty of room for improvement.

As a decision maker, Doncic made youthful mistakes at times trying to force passes that resulted in costly turnovers. However, his turnovers decreased year over year while his assist rate increased, so this represents a flaw that can and should be improved over time.

Summary

Doncic will enter the league as one of the few primary ball handlers with legitimate wing size, putting him in the class of Giannis, LeBron, Ben Simmons and the like. Of this group, he is the best jump shooter, an elite passer and the worst defender and athlete. Despite his defensive and athletic limitations, he should have the ability to switch 1–4 on defense with remarkable IQ and instincts on offense. It will take some time for him to learn how to use his physicality to score in isolation, but he is further advanced in this area than most predict. He can score against bigs that are switched onto him and should be able to use his strength to punish smaller guards. He will have trouble against longer and more athletic wing defenders early in his career, but will improve over time. He plays with a level of confidence and toughness that aren’t evident in the rest of the class and has proved himself in high leverage moments on the biggest stages in international competition.

In a league where the highest premium is placed on ball handling, outside shooting, passing and defensive versatility, Doncic is a clear cut number one prospect. There are certainly great big men in this class, but it would behoove any team at the top of the lottery to select Doncic if he’s available. Look at the teams in the Conference Finals and their best players — none are truly elite centers and most if not all are switchable wings or ball handlers that can shoot and pass. Even the skilled big men, like Kevin Love and Clint Capela, are at risk of being played off the floor at times. Doncic has the rare combination of skills that form an elite player in the modern NBA and has potential to be a future MVP candidate. He should be the number one pick.