NBA Draft Board 2021
Folks, we’re back. Sort of.
It feels nice to be writing about basketball again. Last year’s draft coincided with an onslaught of law school applications, and I was reduced to publishing my board on Twitter with a thread of associated thoughts (see below).
This year, however, I am proudly admitted to law school (go Rams), and time has permitted a more in-depth review of this year’s class of prospects. And what a class it is. A full scouting report will likely not follow all of the names, but relevant notes are enclosed. For readers new and old, I hope you enjoy.
To start, let’s review the state of the NBA in 2021. The highest premium remains placed on a player above 6'5" with primary creation and playmaking responsibilities. Yet, this is not the only way to win. While Giannis is in that category, LeBron, Luka, Harden, Simmons, and other potential contenders for this archetype failed to make the conference finals, and teams like the Suns and Hawks advanced behind stellar point guard play from players under 6'3". Furthermore, we’ve seen teams survive, and even thrive, in short time frames despite injuries to these archetypal focal point players.
I would argue the second most important component to a winning basketball team in 2021 is the presence of a legitimate rim protector who can also anchor the defensive glass. Offensively-minded teams with poor rim protectors could not hack it in the playoffs despite historical efficiency on offense or superior depth (see Brooklyn, Denver*, the Clippers). Your team’s rim protector does not need to be elite. He simply needs to be able to stay on the floor in the game’s biggest moments.
After those two components, the building blocks to a winning team become more murky. There are fewer specific player archetypes; the goal is a particular style. It has become obvious that teams need multiple ball handlers on the floor at once, either those with the ability to create their own shot off the dribble or to create a shot for a teammate. Teams also need wings that can switch onto as many positions as possible without becoming a liability defensively, be it from the perspective of length or quickness. And lastly, teams need shooting. The more efficient jump shooters that are on the floor at any given time, the better your chance to win the basketball game.
It is with the above conditions in mind that I create the big board that follows. Without further ado…
Tier One — All-NBA ceilings
1. Cade Cunningham
Cade’s got it. Any questions that people had coming into college about his jump shooting or defense off the ball were answered by his stellar play. Had I written this report a year ago, I would have expected to be talking about Cade’s phenomenal pace, the way he controls the game at his tempo, and his incredible playmaking ability for his teammates. Yet, somehow, it was his shooting that shined the most.
If you simply looked at the statistical profiles, Cade’s scoring ability in college mirrored (and bettered) Jayson Tatum’s. They both shot about 6 free throws per game at an 85% clip. Tatum took 248 two point field goals in college; Cade took 245. Cade got up a few more threes per game (9 per 100 possessions vs 7 for Tatum), and hit them at a higher percentage, but they both had usage rates in the high 20s. Cade had a 57.4% TS and 51.5% eFG. Tatum had a 56.6% TS and a 50.7% eFG.
The major difference between Cade and Tatum, though, is that Cade’s four assists per game massively underrate his passing ability, and that level of playmaking is the key for Tatum to reach the next level of stardom in the league. Cade is that playmaker already, but his numbers at Oklahoma State fail to show it.
Watch in the video above (which I did not create, credit to Coach Spins) as Cade works magic while his teammates toss bricks at the rim. He snakes the pick and roll, manipulates the defender and sneaks a dump off pass to the big at his chest in stride. He flings cross court dimes to jump shooters with impeccable accuracy with either hand. He comes downhill off a screen, hesitates to put his defender off balance, then lobs a pristine high-low to the roller. There are dozens of these clips from games throughout the year. Cade’s combination of vision, instincts, unselfishness, accuracy and geometry as a passer is what gives me the most confidence in his success at the next level. Even if NBA length gives him trouble early in his career as a shot creator, he’s going to be an elite playmaker for his size relatively quickly.
So you have a 6'8", 220 lb lead ball-handler, who can score like Jayson Tatum and pass (almost) like Luka Doncic. He is pretty much a prototypical future MVP candidate, and an absolute can’t-miss prospect.
A couple of concerns:
Cunningham is listed 6'8", but something about his game looks smaller to me. Maybe it’s the fact that he has a compact dribble, which can sometimes complicate his effort on drives into traffic. He doesn’t keep his head down, but he plays a little hunched over in the half-court, which gives the illusion that he is 6'5" or 6'6". He’s much more impressive as an athlete in transition than he is in the half court. Not the greatest first step and burst leaves something to be desired, so players can get under his dribble and give him issues. I do think he has enough craft as a ball handler in most cases, but adding some strength will help him when pressured. He did turn the ball over a lot. It wasn’t really a decision making issue; it was more of a function of the sheer volume of defensive attention. Something to keep an eye on but not enough to dissuade.
Defensively, he has a tendency to get disengaged off the ball, and was not really one to get in the mix for a tough contested rebound. There is definitely an element to his game that when the ball comes off the rim, he wants it in his hands, and he wants to orchestrate at his pace. His style is much like Harden and Doncic in that way. I don’t think it’s a big deal. Clear cut top prospect.
2. Evan Mobley
Evan Mobley is my guy. I wanted so badly to put him #1 in this draft. Mobley will compete for multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards during his career. Watching him is like if you took Kevin Garnett’s skills and put them in Anthony Davis’s body with Chris Bosh’s instincts.
Mobley is one of the most talented pick and roll defenders to come into the league in a long time as a big man. He can switch onto ball handlers and stay with them to the rim. He can blitz and contain with his length and anticipation. His incredible quickness lets him play drop and close out to shooters. He fits any defensive scheme, and he doesn’t commit fouls. Mobley can’t get played off the floor — there is no small lineup that neutralizes him.
He has phenomenal coordination for his size. Everything moves fluidly as if he were 6'7". It makes him an ideal rim protector. You can trust him on the weakside, and he can switch his hips and block shots with either hand. He uses his length perfectly in verticality. It’s everything you can ask for.
Offensively, Mobley is not the most aggressive scorer, but neither was Anthony Davis in college (Mobley attempted 1.7 more field goals per 40 minutes). He has all the skills you’d want in a modern big man. He is a tremendous pick-and-roll finisher, showcasing a bevy of scoring techniques. He can go off 1–2 dribbles into a ferocious dunk off the short roll. He can catch, turn, and go up with a hook shot with either hand. He has no problem rising and finishing in traffic. He’s not a great post-up player yet, but his footwork is quite good and he has a soft touch, so I have confidence that he’ll be able to punish size mismatches at the next level. The scoring repertoire is extremely diverse, and he finds his points in the flow of the game.
For a true seven-footer, Mobley’s handle is spectacular. He loves to grab a rebound and go in transition, and he has no hesitation breaking down a defender with a dribble move or a counter. He ran 15 pick and rolls this season as the ball handler and scored on seven. He runs with incredible fluidity, showcasing an absurdly long stride length and a natural affinity for utilizing his physical gifts. The fluidity and agility that he displays with the ball in his hands at his size is reminiscent of early Giannis before his frame developed.
The best part of Mobley’s offense is his gifted passing ability. The 4-on-3 pass on a dish from a blitzed ball handler? Easy. Out of a double team on either block? With decisiveness and accuracy. Coming off a flare screen on the right wing, driving and tossing a perfectly placed 12 foot lob? Practically once a game. His 14.1% assist percentage was higher than that of any recent big man drafted in the top 5 like DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Karl Towns, DeAndre Ayton or James Wiseman, and is more analogous to forwards like Zion Williamson (14.9%) or Blake Griffin (16.4%). This versatility gives him an incredible advantage. He may not be Nikola Jokic as a passer, but his playmaking ability at the 5 allows for an array of lineup options and far more flexibility in roster construction.
Shooting is the biggest missing piece of Mobley’s offensive game. He only took 40 threes, hitting at a 30% clip, and he shot 70% from the FT line. Despite these unimpressive numbers, his mechanics are good and he shoots an easy ball. I’d be willing to bet that he develops into a serviceable floor spacer. Maybe he’ll have seasons where he shoots 40% from three, like a Brook Lopez, and maybe he’ll have seasons where he is cold from distance. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to consider that years from now, defenses will treat Mobley as a Lopez-esque spot-up threat from behind the arc.
I’m not as worried as others about Mobley’s slight build or his ability to finish through contact as others are. I place far more faith in NBA nutrition and performance coaches to turn his body into one that will survive the rigors of professional basketball than I do in my amateur ability to scout how a frame might fill out. That said, right now, it’s not like he’s some hulking rim protector who will strike fear across the NBA. Drew Timme kind of put him under the basket. Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic are going to eat the kid for lunch in the beginning of his career. His build also hurts him as a defensive rebounding anchor right now. But I’m really not concerned about it. I’m actually bullish on his frame long term, and I’d bet on his work ethic.
Mobley is going to transform whichever team he goes to, and is going to vault them into the top 10 of the league defensively at some point during his rookie contract. His offensive ceiling is only capped by his aggressiveness, motor and willingness to get better. There is no doubt in my mind that he has the talent and potential to reach the heights of a Kevin Garnett. It will be up to him to realize that potential, but a team would be foolish to pass on the opportunity to develop it.
Tier Two — Somewhere between All-NBA and a handful of ASGs
3. Jalen Green
Microwave. This scout is pretty simple for me.
The NBA is seeing a mini-revival of the Dwyane Wade-style of shooting guard Alpha Dog (Bradley Beal, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, Zach LaVine, Anthony Edwards, etc). There are competing thoughts as to whether or not this kind of player can sustainably be the best option on a championship-contending team. Personally, I’m quite skeptical. Despite relative scoring efficiency and volume, these undersized wings who lack primary playmaking ability have not shown to be a reliable focal point for a winning team. The best examples, Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray, are superior defenders and have other significant playmaking options on their rosters. However, if you think this player archetype can lead to consistent team success, then Jalen Green is your man.
Green’s natural scoring ability is on par with any other player on the planet. He is a truly gifted athlete with elite burst, separation, and body control, and he is practically unstoppable once he gets downhill.
He has extreme levels of comfort in shooting off the dribble, and he has a full bag of moves to create space. He has step-backs to either hand, side-steps, stop and pops, and can shoot out of combos in isolation. He’s probably a bit over-reliant on moves to create offense for himself, but he has excellent footwork and his athleticism is such that the shotmaking comes naturally.
His form is not mechanically ideal, and the numbers don’t pop off the screen from an efficiency perspective, but the raw production is undeniable, and poor shooting splits is what scared me off Mitchell at Louisville. If you go back and watch the tape, the athleticism, explosiveness and creativity were impossible to ignore, and the misses were mostly an afterthought. It’d be folly to make the same mistake again.
This combination of downhill athleticism with natural scoring instincts is certainly reminiscent of Anthony Edwards. Yet, where I was low on Ant, specifically in his decision making and defensive intensity, I am much higher on Green. Green has shown potential to make quality reads while getting downhill, and is a willing passer when the defense gives him an advantage. He can’t orchestrate an offense, but he’ll get you 3 or 4 assists a night on pre-determined reads. I wouldn’t call him a gunner. On the ball, he’s a decent defender, using his athleticism to recover when he gets beat off the dribble or gets caught in a screen. In this way, he’s much like Zach LaVine coming into the league — an electric athlete and quality shotmaker, but a limited passer with poor off-ball instincts on defense. I think he’s further than LaVine was in both respects.
A major distinction between Green and Edwards is in their strength profiles and how that impacts their overall game. Edwards is a brick house, and came into the NBA able to leverage his strength to get to the hole. Green is much more frail and vulnerable to contact. This is a liability when Green can’t get downhill, as he relies on a lot of side-to-side movements and hesitation to create space in isolation. Much like LaVine, he’ll need to add significant strength to his frame to hold up against bigger defenders and stay effective throughout the course of a full season. Nevertheless, he was able to consistently get buckets as a primary option against full grown men in the G League. That is an accomplishment nobody else in this class besides Cade could pull off, and makes him worthy of a top three selection.
4. Jalen Suggs
Jalen Suggs is a sure bet. If he stays healthy, he’ll make at least one All Star team. The question is… what is his ceiling? Suggs reminds me a lot of Chauncey Billups: the toughness, physicality, efficiency, unselfishness, and overall floor-generalness. He’s a multi-faceted athlete; you can see why he was a phenomenal quarterback. The way he’s able to cover ground, anticipate and attack passing lanes, and utilize angles and court geometry is incredibly advanced, and is an innate athletic trait that makes him difficult to project in the NBA.
There isn’t really a current player like Suggs. The closest comparison is probably Russell Westbrook, but if you took the force and athleticism from a 10 to an 8.5. Great first step. Super explosive and a relentless attacker. Suggs isn’t a high volume three point shooter or a particularly prolific passer in the half-court, but he is a willing shooter with great passing vision. He’s a very, very good defender but it’s not like he’s Jrue Holiday on the ball. He scores efficiently, gets to the line, and makes typical mistakes with the ball for a young player. He has plus size for his position and has above average physical tools. This is just a solid all-around basketball player who helps you win games.
Suggs thrives in transition. He’s a great runner, jumper and finisher as it allows him to showcase his natural athleticism. He has high level body control around the rim and has nice touch with either hand. His vision as a passer shines in the open floor. He has shown a knack for getting downhill in pick-and-roll. He’s a decent shooter, but a streaky one with inconsistent mechanics. Regardless, he’s not afraid to pull it if you go under on him. I could see Suggs in his prime seasons averaging something like 22–8–7 with a couple of steals on 48/35/80 splits. That’s a pretty damn good player.
Defensively, Suggs is all that you can ask for. He hustles maniacally and will be a league leader in deflections and loose balls recovered. He jumps passing lanes and can chase-down block with the best of them. I think he’s a tier below Jrue Holiday and Marcus Smart, but he’ll find himself in the next group. He’s got great hands and quick feet, and possesses the effort level to fight over screens and play disciplined off the ball. He thinks the game and will be able to adjust to several defensive schemes. This leadership ability and overall basketball IQ will help his assimilation to the NBA, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he was a plus-player in year one, much like Tyrese Haliburton.
Suggs is the perfect high-floor player for a team in need of stability at the ball handler position, and will be an immediate culture-setter. When taking all that’s been written above, it’s pretty clear that Suggs is a can’t miss prospect. But something about his game has him clearly below the top 3 for me. I don’t see his pathway to a legitimate alpha scorer or playmaker absent some pretty incredible skill development, specifically in the mid range and on the consistency with his jump shot. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but each of Cade, Mobley and Green all currently possess elite skills that carry a higher premium in the modern NBA. Suggs would have comfortably been my second ranked prospect last year, just behind LaMelo, but this year, he’ll have to settle for 4th in a loaded class of top prospects.
Tier Three — Upside bets
5. Josh Giddey
You’re talking about a 6'8" 18 year old kid who led the NBL in assists. He is a competitor, a worker, and comes from a basketball family. He has immaculate feel for the game, a true visionary level for seeing the floor and making plays that are two steps ahead. I’m not talking about LaMelo Ball, though.
Giddey actually projects to me like a bizarre mix between the Ball brothers. He has LaMelo’s flare and tendency to push the pace off the glass regardless of advantage. In LaMelo’s vein, he’ll attack the rim in transition if he gets a sliver of space, but he’s a better finisher than LaMelo around the rim. He has Lonzo’s feel for the game and understanding of positioning, angles, and efficiency. Like Lonzo, the jumper is inconsistent, but like LaMelo, he’s comfortable shooting it off the dribble. His handle is more like Lonzo’s — vulnerable and a bit high, not super shifty, and like Lonzo, he lacks a quick first step, and may not have the burst necessary to be a primary ball handler. Defensively, he profiles more like LaMelo: he stands high, gets blown-by all the time, but uses his IQ to sneak into passing lanes and make a positive impact off the ball. It’s truly a strange combination of the two brothers’ skillsets.
Giddey has several flaws as a prospect. His shooting mechanics are pretty inconsistent, from the footwork all the way up to the elbow. On catch and shoot situations, it can be a bit of a mess. As a ball handler, he is comfortable and plays within himself, but if you get under him, he loses control. His handle isn’t tight enough yet to run a team; he isn’t shifty and can’t counter. He really only gets downhill with a screen or in transition. Offensively, this is why Giddey projects more like Lonzo in his early career. The shooting needs work, and he has to learn to how to create space with the ball against NBA-level defense. It will take time.
Defensively, I’m probably higher on his potential than consensus. I tend to have faith in high-IQ, instinctual players that don’t have the best physical tools to eventually figure out how they can become an asset in a team defense concept. Sure, he’s going to get blown by sometimes. But this is the NBA, there are some guys you just can’t stay in front of.
Overall, I think Giddey has the best shot of anyone outside the top 4 of being a legitimate star in the NBA. His combination of IQ, size and passing just doesn’t come around often. It’s almost palpable when he is on the floor by the way that the ball comes alive and whips around. When I think of what his low-end projection could be, it’s something like a Boris Diaw. He’s going to keep the ball moving, know where to be on the floor, and is going to be an asset in the locker room. On the high end, if he gets his shot right, you are talking about a potentially elite secondary ball handler. If he gets his shot right and tightens his handle, both of which seem within the realm of possibility, he could be a legitimate 6'8" point guard and one of the more dangerous offensive players in a league becoming more and more heliocentric. Based on everything I’ve read about is work ethic and the family he comes from, he’d be the upside bet that I’d put my chips behind if I couldn’t get one of the top 4.
6. Moses Moody
This is the guy I’m betting on next. Moody is a hard worker, extremely intelligent and professional in his approach to both the game and life itself, and brings winning and success wherever he goes. He’s an impressive individual for someone who played his entire freshman season at 18 years old.
Moody has ideal physical traits for the NBA. He’s 6'6", 205 lbs with a 7'1" wingspan. Many will put him in the box of “3-and-D” wing because of his shooting upside and defensive versatility, but I think he’s capable of much more than that.
Let’s get the negatives out of the way first. The athleticism leaves something to be desired. He has a slow first step and lacks vertical explosiveness. The lack of burst is a concern. This really impacts his finishing ability. He doesn’t use his length well at the rim, and even though he does well to draw contact and get to the line, there’s a lot of work to do around the rim. As a passer, he’s limited at the moment. He can hit a roller out of a ball screen, but he doesn’t swing the ball and doesn’t make advanced reads. You can’t count on him to be a secondary ball handler at this stage in his development.
On the positive side, Moody’s shotmaking portends an extremely high ceiling for his potential due to the value that shot creation has in the modern NBA. He is silky smooth. He has no problem with a tight contest and can shoot well off the catch or off a live dribble. His mechanics are extremely consistent, albeit a bit slow on the load up. He can spot up, attack a closeout and pop, or run off screens and shoot on the move. He’s a crafty ball handler, and creates space effectively despite his lack of athleticism. I’ve seen a lot of people doubt this separation ability, but Moody shot 48% on seven 2-point-attempts per game. He’s actually taking jumpers — it’s not like he’s OG Anunoby in college cleaning up around the rim. He’s got a nice Dirk fadeaway going left. He can get to the hoop, which is promising, but the finishing is admittedly an issue. I’d like to see him develop a floater game. He draws fouls at a high rate, and knows how to initiate contact from a defender. While he’s not a great passer, he also doesn’t turn the ball over often considering his high usage rate.
Defensively, Moody is everything you want in today’s NBA. He hustles, uses his length much more effectively than he does on offense and has active hands. He moves his feet well and is fluid moving laterally. He is a plus team defender, and as he adds strength, he should be switchable 1–4. He’s a spectacular on ball defender, and will be a suitable option to guard the opponent’s best wing player.
As the ideal role player, Moody can absolutely come in and be Mikal Bridges 2.0. He can spot up, make one-dribble pull ups, score on the move off the catch, and guard wings and switch onto guards. Mikal’s shooting splits in college were better than Moody’s, but Moody had vastly more offensive responsibility as a freshman. I think he is capable of reaching the next level. 3-and-D wings don’t take 6 FTAs per game in college. 3-and-D wings don’t often take more 2s than 3s. 3-and-D wings don’t play with the kind of poise Moody does with the ball in his hands as an 18 year old. I’m betting on his shot creator upside, and don’t see any reason why he can’t be a 3-point-shooting DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan also averaged 6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game in college, and Moody got to the line at a higher rate. If you’re looking for a comparison with someone who shot more 3s in college, his shot profile is a little reminiscent of another Razorback, Joe Johnson.
As people debate Moody’s ceiling, and whether or not he can transcend the moniker of a “3-and-D” wing, I’ll leave you with a few statistical comparisons. Below is Moses Moody’s freshman season at Arkansas:
33.8 mpg, 5.2 FG/12.1 FGA, .427 FG%, .478 2P%, .358 3P%, 4.7/5.8 FTA, .812 FT%, 5.8 TRB (2.0 ORB), 1.0 STL, 0.7 BLK, 1.6 TOV, 16.8 PTS
Below is Paul George’s freshman season at Fresno State:
34.6 mpg, 5.9/10.4 FGA, .470 FG%, .486 2P%, .447 3P%, 2.7/3.9 FTA, .697 FT%, 6.2 TRB (1.9 ORB), 1.7 STL, 1.0 BLK, 2.3 TOV, 14.3 PTS
Here’s his per-40 minute mark at Arkansas vs. Jaylen Brown’s per-40 at Cal:
And here’s his advanced box score against Devin Booker’s in college:
He’s got a 3-and-D floor. That much is certain and makes him worthy of a top 10 pick. But more than that, the creator upside is absolutely there. Anyone nitpicking his handle or shot mechanics aren’t seeing the forest for the trees.
7. Franz Wagner
Franz Wagner is the best team defender in the draft. The Big 10 awards selection committee should frankly be ashamed of itself that he was left off the conference All-Defense team. I’m still pissed off about it.
Wagner wreaks havoc defensively. If he’s in the game, you don’t throw cross court passes because they will be deflected. He is a superb defender in pick-and-roll, and will be able to switch and stay in front of the vast majority of NBA ball handlers. Fundamentals are there. Doesn’t bite on pump fakes, great balance on close outs, uses length and verticality to perfection. This word is overused, but he truly has generational feel for the game on defense. It is a joy to watch him rotate for a weakside block. He’s also tremendous on the ball, dropping his hips and staying with quicker guards. Uses angles effectively to force difficult shots. Fantastic defensive prospect with ideal size at 6'9"*. Doesn’t project as a rim protector, but I like him in the quarterback role on D.
*Franz says he’s taller than 6'9" now.
Offensively, he’s not going to light the world on fire, but it’s a high floor due to his passing. Can handle a little bit in pick-and-roll situations and pass high-low. Really good at hitting rollers on dribble handoffs. He keeps the ball moving in general — very unselfish player.
Good shooter; he will be a threat in catch-and-shoot situations once he speeds up his release. Not much of a left hand at all, but a quality driver with his dominant hand. Doesn’t do much self creation, but he’ll clean up messes and can finish with a soft touch, and his free throw percentage bodes well for his long term 3-ball efficiency. He can’t do much on the move as a shooter, and if you close out hard on him, he’s more likely to pass out than step through and take a pull up off the dribble. But I’m not really drafting him to score. I want his defensive versatility and his passing. He’s young with a great basketball IQ; I think the left hand will come. He won’t be a focus for defenses for several years. It will give him time to iron out the kinks and leverage his passing skill to greater usage.
I know this sounds crazy, but honestly, on defense, Wagner reminds me of Draymond Green. There just aren’t players like him who can read actions and see them instantly, then know exactly where to be to disrupt them in the blink of an eye. He doesn’t make defensive mistakes. He’s not an above the rim athlete, but he will block a shot or two each game just by putting his hands in the right place. If you need a defensive connector, draft Franz Wagner.
8. Kai Jones
Want tools to bet on? This is the guy. Kai Jones didn’t start playing basketball until 2016, when he was 15 years old. The athleticism here, in particular, the functionality of the athleticism, is just off the charts. He runs like a gazelle. It’s incredible to watch. This man is 6'11".
Here are the knocks: he doesn’t really know where to be on defense yet. Not great with rotations, defensive schemes, etc. Even when he’s in the right spot, he’s not helping much. He gets knocked around and is foul prone. The feel for the game isn’t there yet. Offensively, the lack of feel really hurts. There are some bad turnovers. The game moves pretty fast for him at times. He’s super raw. Because he can’t be a rim protector yet, the shooting needs to get there early in his career for him to get consistent minutes at the 4. There is a real chance he busts out of the league.
On the other hand, the upside is simply through the roof. His functional athleticism affords him an absolutely incredible level of body control and fluidity for his size. He is one of the rare, rare prospects that flashes a legitimate ability to create for himself on the perimeter, the golden skill for a center. Watch the way he can handle the ball with balance and how smooth his perimeter game can be:
As a straight line driver, he is Giannis-like with his stride length and fluidity.
This level of body control also gives Jones a tremendous upside on the defensive end. Watch him stifle Cade Cunningham on multiple possessions in Texas’s bouts with Oklahoma State this season:
His lateral quickness allows him to stay in front of smaller players, so you can envision a future with him as a switchable center. He has great feet and hips, can slide and stay down in a stance. He’s good with angles defensively and uses his length well.
Beyond his ball control, his athleticism really shines above the rim. He jumps out of the gym off 2 feet, can jump in traffic with no momentum or high-point the catch as roller. In transition and as a roller, you can envision him as an ideal vertical threat to put pressure on the rim.
The offensive tools continue with the jumper. The rhythm is nice, the form looks smooth, and he’ll be a legitimate threat from the corner three right away. This overall combination of offensive tools — the ball handling, the vertical explosiveness, and the jump shooting — all portend a potentially incredibly valuable offensive weapon. He can be a traditional five man, setting screens and playing as the roller, but he can also play pick and pop, unlocking some of that early Kristaps Porzingis action when he was able to play consistently above the rim. If his skills develop further, he could play next to a traditional rim protector and space out to the corners, putting pressure on the rim as a cutter off weakside help.
Jones has the upside of what people thought Porzingis could be: someone who can create his own shot from the 5, shoot threes, switch on defense while staying in front of perimeter players, and put constant vertical pressure on the rim. It’s a tantalizing ceiling. It will require patience and prudent development, but Jones’s athletic tools are worth betting on in the top 10.
9. Keon Johnson
If you know what I like in a basketball player, you’ll know I am a sucker for Keon Johnson. I love elite athletes that compete on defense but can’t shoot. I don’t know why, but I am a total sucker. Keon reminds me of Kris Dunn, but Kris Dunn was always hopeless as a shooter. Keon brings all of those intriguing parts of Dunn’s game — the athleticism, defense and playmaking — but the shooting can be salvaged.
The flaws are obvious here: weak handle, not particularly shifty, no real craft around the rim, mediocre decision making, and the jumper. But for me, if I’m taking Keon Johnson to develop him, I’m deconstructing the entire jumper and starting from scratch. I actually think his jumper can be developed. Spend five minutes watching his highlight tape, and you can see right away that he’s actually got great touch, but his footwork is all over the place. I’d start from the ground up and get his footwork consistent. Once he has a solid base, the rhythm will come. He’s a decent free throw shooter and comfortable in the mid-range… it’s not like he’s a lost cause.
The upside here is tremendous. Keon is the best athlete in the draft and one of the most explosive vertical athletes to come into the NBA in a while. He is a forceful jumper, attacking the rim with a vengeance in a way that reminds me of Miles Bridges. The explosiveness shows up everywhere. He’s got an electric first step as a ball handler, and his lateral quickness on defense is thrilling to watch. That may be the best part of his athleticism — it is extremely functional, to the point that his nonstop motor almost fuels his burst. He is intensely aggressive on a possession-by-possession basis.
Defensively, Johnson is a menace. It’s kind of like watching a 6'5" Patrick Beverley who has been shot out of a cannon. He flies around the court and disrupts everything, and is a bit of a quarterback out there. He’s calling out switches, always tight on his rotations, and plays extremely physical on the ball. He’s long too, so I think he’ll be able to guard 1–3 with relative ease.
Offensively, most of Johnson’s work gets done off the ball right now because of his handling issues. He’s fast and has good instincts for leaking out in transition. In the half court, he can create space with his athleticism, and he likes to get a defender off balance with his first step and take a two-dribble pull up in the mid range. He is an adequate passer. He can make basic reads and isn’t a black hole with the ball at all. But really, I think he’ll blossom offensively in the NBA because of the nightmarish situation at Tennessee. I don’t know what offense they were running, but it wasn’t one conducive to scoring points (which I was told is the point of the game).
With more space and a quicker pace to the game, Johnson’s athletic gifts will shine. He won’t be asked to handle or make decisions in big moments as a young player, and I think he’ll have time to grow out of those bad habits. I would bet on his passion and energy that he displays time and again, and I would be patient as he develops some more polish to his offensive game. It’s important to remember that Johnson had a meniscus injury that kept him out of his senior year of high school, so while he was a top-tier recruit, he was playing his way back from injury in his freshman season. I don’t think anything in Johnson’s game is particularly broken, and the athletic gifts and defensive upside will keep him in the league for a while as a rotational piece. If a team can figure out his jumper and get his handle solid enough to where he’s comfortable as a scorer, I think he has tertiary or secondary creator upside with ultra-elite athleticism, and he projects as a plus-plus defender.
10. Scottie Barnes
I seem to be lower on Barnes than the consensus, and that is because when I watch Scottie Barnes, I see a combination of OG Anunoby and Ben Simmons. You might be thinking, ‘well, that seems like a pretty damn good player’. And Scottie Barnes is pretty damn good. But I really, really don’t know if you can win a championship if he’s playing 30 minutes for you.
Barnes is extremely similar to OG defensively. They have the same physical attributes, and they play in a comparable style, using their length with extreme effectiveness. They can actually switch 1–5, and they wreak havoc in passing lanes. Barnes is very aggressive at the point of attack, and has a great defensive IQ that allows him to stay in front of smaller players and engulf them with his length. He projects as a high-level defender that can fit in any scheme, and could be a future league leader in deflections.
Offensively, and I don’t know why people don’t want to admit it, but he’s pretty much what Simmons was in college with significantly less aggressiveness. People forget that Simmons wasn’t completely averse to shooting in college. He was just bad at it. He didn’t take 3s, but he got to the FT line at will, where he shot 67% on 297 attempts. Conversely, Scottie will take 3s (40 of them in 24 games), but he knows he can’t shoot, so he avoids contact, and he only took 6.3 FTAs per 100 possessions. He’s less athletic than Simmons, and similarly can’t create separation as a ball handler. He’s not crafty, doesn’t really finish well, has poor touch, and the jumper is a total mess. He took 19 off the dribble jumpers the entire season and made 4 of them. His footwork is inconsistent and his balance is all over the place.
As a passer, like Simmons, he’s great. He played the lead guard for Florida State quite often and did a superb job. He makes all the reads you’d want, can pass with either hand, and operates well with a ball screen. He finds teammates all over the floor and doesn’t hesitate in the flow of an offense. But these are all things Ben Simmons did! He’s great in transition like Simmons. He uses his length and power to his advantage like Simmons. They are incredibly similar offensive players. Simmons is a better functional athlete, which I think led Kevin Pelton to once say that Barnes was like a cross between Simmons and Kyle Anderson. I’ve seen Pascal Siakam comparisons. Um, Pascal Siakam can score! Some people say Draymond Green. I’m sorry, but the relentless aggressiveness that Barnes possesses on defense is not a substitute for a Hall of Fame IQ level on that end of the floor.
At the end of the day, the physical tools and passing ability are undeniable. But at the same time, in this same draft, Giddey is a better passer from the same height (and far more likely to develop into a legitimate shot creator), and Wagner is a better team defender at the same size. The Ringer called Barnes a “Taller and Bulkier Michael Carter-Williams”. That sounds about right, and not exactly what I want to draft in the top 5.
11. Jonathan Kuminga
I’m worried about the lower body injuries. Knee injury with Ignite, tendinitis preseason, an ankle injury junior year at The Patrick School. Three leg injuries in a year and a half are concerning.
On the other hand, I’m not too worried about the lack of improvement in the G League. It feels like Kuminga has played a level up his whole life. He played up at EYBL, reclassified after his junior season, went to the G League over the NCAA. He doesn’t turn 19 until October 6th, and as mentioned, he spent a lot of the last couple of years battling injuries (please don’t bring that “age” stuff over here). That’s not the ideal environment to go up against full grown men, so I’m willing to give him a bit of a pass on the poor statistical output in his 13 games with Ignite.
What I’m more worried about is the amount of work Kuminga is going to require in player development to scratch the surface of his potential. He’s the rawest player in the draft with this kind of pedigree, at least to my eye. He has all of the tools, physically and athletically, even flashing some really impressive passing ability. But man, the game needs a ton of work.
His decision making on offense is downright awful. I don’t know if he thought Ignite was just a place for him to work on his game and act like he’s Kobe Bryant, but come on. Some of the mid-range jumpers he took were ridiculous. As a passer, he forces things way too much and tries to be fancy for the sake of being fancy. Defensively, it’s the same problem. He picks and chooses when he wants to lock in, and when he falls asleep, he’s a major liability. There wasn’t an impressive IQ level off the ball, he couldn’t navigate screens, and he got picked apart by coaches that could design sets to hunt him. I watched two games where I thought he had never been taught how to close out on a shooter before. I hate being this negative about a prospect, but after catching him in glimpses in EYBL, I was really disappointed by the Ignite tape.
Let’s talk positives though, because they exist. He’s got the ideal physical profile for a modern wing — 6'7", 7 foot wingspan. He’s a freak athlete: quick, strong, long and impactful. Long strider, great straight line driver, explosive jumper. He likes to absorb contact. The tools are there.
Unfortunately, those tools need to be refined to make a consistent basketball player. Right now, Kuminga doesn’t actually do much at a high level. He’s a cutter, a driver, a downhill transition player. He thinks he has a bag. He’s got a hesi, a nice little spin move, a counter or two. Throw him in the mid post and he thinks he’s Jaylen Brown. He likes the fadeaway, and he wants to be Kobe with the face-up game and the up-and-unders. I guess there is something to be said for this level of shot creation. Not many guys get up this many unassisted jumpers. But I do feel like to justify your draft slot, some of those jumpers actually need to go in. In transition, he finishes well both as a scorer and passer. He makes the right pass when it’s presented to him, and has flashed potential as a distributor in pick-and-roll. On defense, he could theoretically be very switchable. His lateral movement is great and he knows how to use his length. He’s strong and doesn’t get bumped off his spot. But again… tools do not a good player make.
When I watch Kuminga, I see Jeff Green. I want him to be Jaylen Brown or Andre Iguodala, and I do think that potential is there, but the path to getting there requires an elite development program and good luck on the health side. I hope it happens, but I think he ends up as a reach.
12. Sharife Cooper
Very complicated prospect. He is at the back end of my upside tier because the upside is there, but of all the guys listed, for me, it’s hardest to see him hitting it. There isn’t anything I’m bringing to the analysis of Cooper’s game that isn’t already well known. He’s going to be one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Absolute turnstile. He also can’t shoot, and while he has a good free throw percentage, the difference in the actual mechanics that he requires to get to the jumper during live play don’t indicate that his shooting numbers were artificially deflated in college by a small sample size. The finishing around the rim looks pretty, but in aggregate is quite inefficient. The flaws are obvious and important.
Nevertheless, Cooper is a wizard with the ball in his hands. His tape is really like watching a version of a bully-ball Trae Young who can’t shoot. It’s spectacular at times. His ball handling is enchanting. He is lightning quick. He is shifty and smooth, reactive and decisive. You can’t stop him from getting to the rim. The pressure he puts on the rim opens up his passing game, which is equally magnificent. He drops dimes to every spot on the court in every situation. The way he throws cross-court passes on the move and whips it with either hand to the corners right into the shooting pocket, or the way he tosses lobs to bigs who don’t even know they have an alley oop until the ball is in the air is Trae to a T.
Cooper loves contact. Trae averaged 12.6 FTA and 12.9 assists per 100 possessions at Oklahoma. It was an offensive masterclass. I was confident enough in his shooting gravity that his lack of size and poor defense could be easily overcome due to his playmaking and ability to get to the free throw line. Cooper averaged 14.1 FTA and 13.3 assists per 100 possessions at Auburn, and averaged fewer turnovers than Young did. That is an absolutely preposterous offensive output. But Cooper lacks the shooting gravity of Young, so while he will be aided by NBA spacing, the jumper becomes a swing skill that could separate Cooper from legitimate stardom and a guy who never becomes more than an electric backup point guard. A consistent float game would also open up his offense.
It’s a strange contradiction: Cooper has no shooting gravity, but he has scoring gravity. Teams went under on every screen, and he still got to the rim at will. Could he play like a below-the-rim De’Aaron Fox? Just putting constant downhill pressure on the defense and spraying passes despite his shooting? Yeah, I think that could happen. But how valuable is De’Aaron Fox on offense with more playmaking if you get none of Fox’s ability on defense? It’s a conundrum. I have no doubt in Cooper’s ability to create offense, but I do question if he will be too inefficient to overcome his defensive limitations. Regardless, in an ideal scenario, one surrounded by at least 3 quality shooters and strong rim protection, I do think Cooper could outshine his flaws and be one of the more dynamic playmakers in the NBA. He’s worth a lottery selection on skill alone, but the situation he goes to will be critical.
Tier Four — I know what I’m getting
13. Jaden Springer
Combo guard with 3-and-D potential, but I need to see more volume on the jumper. He’s a sick on-ball defender and has decent length for his size (6'4", 6'8" wingspan). Great lateral mover and is super smart on the defensive end. Really a coach’s dream in that respect. He’s always in the right spot, loves to fight through screens and get into ball handlers.
Offensively, Springer’s solid all around. He gets to the cup, is a solid cutter, and has plus athleticism that helps with his finishing in traffic. He’s a plus passer but isn’t going to the light the world on fire. He has a Jalen Brunson-like jump stop game. Everything is under control and off two feet. He’s never rushed, plays with a ton of poise, and makes good decisions.
On paper, the shooting splits look great, but the volume tells a different story. Springer was very inefficient on pull up jumpers and he was only getting up 4 3PA per 100 possessions. The mechanics aren’t consistent and he doesn’t shoot an easy ball. I’m betting on regression here in his early career, but he’s one of the younger players in the draft, and the rest of his game is so solid and developed that it gives me hope for the jumper in the future.
He doesn’t have the tightest handle, and the fact that he plays the entire game off 2 feet makes it difficult for him to create separation or beat guys off the dribble. When he’s in the lane, he doesn’t have any ability to jump off one foot and finish after absorbing contact. There’s not too much craft around the rim. You can’t really rely on him as a primary ball handler.
Again, shooting is the swing skill here. Springer could be a great 3-and-D combo guard if he gets the jumper to a place where he’s comfortable shooting a high volume of 3s at a decent percentage. He’d be playable for spot minutes at the point, or could be a great option next to a bigger wing operating as a primary ball handler. He’ll almost certainly be a solid role player in the NBA due to his on-ball defense and patience on the offensive end. I don’t think he has star upside, but with a real jumper, he could be an elite rotational piece on the high end that could realistically play big minutes late in the playoffs.
14. Tre Mann
Slick handle, knockdown shooter on a lightning quick release. Great pull-up game going in either direction. Synergy had him at 41–78 on pull-up 3s this season. Decent size, for a lead guard at least, at 6'4". You can’t go under on him. Solid passer and can operate a little bit out of a ball screen.
Physical limitations are pretty clear. Not very long (6'4" wingspan) or strong. He’s an average athlete. Not super quick, can’t really get by you, tends to avoid contact and doesn’t finish above the rim. He’s right-hand dominant and it shows on tape. He’s not a natural point guard. He struggles with double teams, makes mistakes in traffic, and is reliant on the floater as he gets to the rim (which he has nice touch on). At times, he can have issues with ball pressure. Defensively, his physical issues really show up. He gets blown by frequently and struggles at absorbing contact. Not a good off-ball defender and falls asleep relatively frequently. Lot of work to be done on that end.
Overall, there’s a lot of CJ McCollum in Mann’s game, and that’s why I’m above consensus on him. The fluidity with the handle, the pull up game and the shooting ability are all there. Mann’s ability to create his own shot, especially from 3, is a premium skill in the NBA. I think his potential as a future 20-ppg scorer on real efficiency is legitimate. But I don’t think you can think of him as a lead guard. He’s going to be a two, or your sixth man, someone that can work with a primary ball handler and take some scoring pressure off him. Due to that, his defensive limitations become a major liability. If your 6'4" player with a 6'4" wingspan can’t defend or be a primary shot creator for others, you need a lead ball handler who can defend. Mann’s style would thrive on a team like Philadelphia (in its current form…), where he would be surrounded by quality defenders, and his shot creation would extract real usage. He probably won’t be a star, but he’s got skills that will make him stick. I will talk about this guy later, but it’s Mann’s shooting that makes him more of a valuable prospect in my eyes than James Bouknight.
15. Davion Mitchell
Eric Bledsoe with a little more offensive juice. I don’t see the justification for drafting a 6'1" 22 year old with flukey shooting in the lottery. Yeah, he shot 45% on 141 3s this year, but he shot 66% on 175 free throws throughout his entire college career. The shooting looks clean on catch-and-shoots, but I don’t project him as a shot creator. He’s got a slow release and dips the ball too low on the load up.
There just isn’t any precedent for a smaller, older guard without a really tight handle or elite passing chops becoming a primary option in the NBA. Offensively, Mitchell relies way too much on his speed and his left hand. He doesn’t have any real counters, and if he can’t beat the defender off the dribble, he’s passing it off. He’s got a great first step and decelerates on a dime, so he can get into the lane, but that’s about it. His game is downhill and forceful. He lacks poise, and most of his turnovers come from a lack of control after he gets sped up. He doesn’t get to the free throw line and isn’t a vertical athlete. He doesn’t have a long wingspan either, so it’s not like he has advantageous physical gifts. He is a legitimately good passer, but not a great one. He knows how to run a ball screen and handles ball pressure well. Even though he can’t finish above the rim, he’s a quality finisher below it. He has nice touch.
Honestly, I think Mitchell’s entire appeal comes from his competitiveness. He’s a total dog on defense. The closest thing to Jrue Holiday in this draft on the ball. He’s going to make your life hell as a ball handler. He has elite lateral quickness, absorbs contact like a pro, and has mega quick hands. He is aggressive without fouling, is a closeout master, and will be an All-Defense candidate for years.
I think, when considering Mitchell, you have to ask yourself where he lands on the Jrue-Smart-Beverley scale of point guard defenders. My concern is this: even if he’s Jrue Holiday across the board, he’s still small to the point of worry. Jrue is long enough to switch onto wings and give them fits, but I don’t know if Mitchell can do the same. I mean, Jevon Carter was a 6'2" 22 year old who shot 39% from 3 on high volume for 2 straight years at West Virginia and nabbed 204 steals in his Junior and Senior seasons, and he can barely get on an NBA court. I watched him force 8 second violations in summer league. Mitchell has worse passing and defensive stats than Carter did but the same kind of dog in him to go along with team success in college. He’s a more explosive athlete and overall much more complete offensive player than Carter was, but I envision their high-end roles quite similarly. If Mitchell’s shot is real, or if he can prove to be a reliable and consistent scorer in the NBA, I am happy to be proven wrong. But I’m more willing to bet that the shooting numbers are an outlier, and you’re looking at a below-the-rim, defensively minded point guard with an average 3-ball and a lack of craft in the lane. If that’s De’Anthony Melton, then great. He helps your team win. But in this particular draft, I don’t see why reaching for Mitchell makes sense.
16. James Bouknight
The second coming of Jordan Clarkson. I guess I understand why teams are tying themselves in knots to get Bouknight and why he’s going to rise into the top 10 on draft night. He is a legitimately NBA-level scorer right now. The shiftiness, change of pace, and shot creation is extremely real. He’s got great size for a combo guard and has excellent body control all over the floor. Great leaper and excellent finisher above or below the rim. The bag is deep — counters, change of direction, pace adjustments, hesis, step backs and crossovers with long strides. He’s an isolation scorer.
But… really… that’s all he is. He’s not a great shooter, especially on catch-and-shoots. Poor footwork and foundation. Doesn’t play well on offense off the ball. The moves to get to the pull ups are nice, but he doesn’t sink them too often. He’s got nice touch, so I think he develops into a better shooter than his numbers indicate, but it’s not like he’s an efficiency machine right now.
His game is too much streetball for me. The jumpers have leans and lack elevation. He’s going for style points, not trying to make winning basketball plays with the ball in his hands. The shot selection is 2nd worst in this draft after Kuminga. Just so many contested step backs. He doesn’t pass the ball and can’t read defenses, so his impressive height doesn’t help as a playmaker. One of the most single-minded players in the draft, and his focus on scoring has really hurt his development of any semblance of court vision. Was this because he was Connecticut’s only offensive option? Perhaps. I’d be willing to be wrong if that was the case, but I don’t see his upside as a primary scorer.
Defensively, it’s a mixed bag. There’s potential there in the way he uses his size and length. He’s a great athlete, so when he gets aggressive, he’s effective. But like most score-first guards, he falls asleep off the ball and doesn’t really fight through screens effectively.
There just isn’t another way around it: Bouknight is Jordan Clarkson. A 6'5" isolation scorer who can become an important piece to a winning team, as long as he cleans up his jumper and starts to make some better decisions with the ball. He won’t be a starter until either of those things come to fruition. Clarkson has become an impactful player as he’s grown into a role that works for him in a system that only asks of him what he’s able to do. If Bouknight can follow that path, he can do the same. But taking an isolation scorer not named Jalen Green in the top 10 of a draft loaded with upside? Not for me.
Tier Five— Okay, you can shoot. What else do you have?
17. Jared Butler
18. Corey Kispert
19. Chris Duarte
20. Trey Murphy
Going to scout each of these guys together. These are the shooters.
Kispert is the best pure shooter of the bunch. I think Butler has the chance to be the best player, but I don’t know anything about the medical. Duarte can help you right now but he’s 24. Bennett probably put Murphy in a box, but unless I’m at the workouts, I can’t trust the idea that he’s some kind of creator now. I can probably count on my left hand the amount of unassisted jumpers he hit last season. Some quick notes on each:
Butler: Everything you want in a modern NBA combo guard. Deadeye off the catch and a good movement shooter. Super tight handle, can create for himself more than anyone else in this group. Solid passer, unselfish, keeps the ball moving. Really the perfect kind of 2 guard that you want next to a star heliocentric player. He’s undersized and not too long. Not a great finisher. Works hard on defense but really only suited to cover guards. I’d have him higher, at 13 above Springer, but I really don’t know on the medical so he goes in the shooting tier.
Kispert: Joe Harris. Great movement shooter. Plays within himself. Elite footwork. Will be an exceptional floor spacer and role player. Underrated as a ball mover and creator. Not just a catch-and-shoot guy. He’s just really slow on defense. He needs to find a way to not be a major liability on that end of the floor. I think he probably ends up as a starter, but it might take a long time if he goes the Doug McDermott route with his defensive development.
Duarte: Incredibly solid all around. Very few weaknesses to speak of. First, not the best on the ball defender. A little weak and not really long. Not a good passer — doesn’t see the floor particularly well and is very inaccurate with the ball. But that’s about it on the negatives. Absolute money from three. Not just a catch and shoot guy either. Can handle and score on multiple levels. Deadly pump fake. There will be hundreds and hundreds of opposing white boards over the next 10 years that say “DO NOT GO UNDER” next to Duarte’s name. If you play drop on him you are dead. He’ll put 4 step backs in your eye on 4 straight possessions. Great team defender. Always in the right spot making the right play. Fits in any scheme, with any lineup, on any team. He helps you win games. It’s just that he’s 24 years old. Did you know Lonzo Ball is younger than him? Crazy! He could easily have a top 10 career in this class, but his age impacts the situations in which he makes sense. Honestly, if Chris Duarte isn’t a Golden State Warrior by Friday, July 30th, 2021, someone in San Francisco made a big mistake.
Murphy: Tantalizing pieces here. Sick shooter paired with ideal size at 6'9" with a 7'0" wingspan. I see something between Cam Johnson and Trevor Ariza for Murphy. Really good athlete. At this point, he’s only a catch and shoot guy, which is why he’s the last of this group. He’s a great defender, which is why Bennett brought him in. Really good laterally, keeps hands high, good on the ball and off it. But looking holistically, if you’re a catch and shoot guy at 6'9" who is an impact player on defense, you’re going to make a lot of money in the NBA. The swing skill for Murphy is his handle. He has no comfortability putting the ball on the floor at this stage. He can’t attack a closeout and has no pull up game at all. He’s not a ball mover either and has a pretty slight frame. That said, he doesn’t need the ball in his hands, has great size, and is a knockdown shooter with plus athleticism and plus defense. That has the makings of an elite role player. And if someone can unlock the handle, Murphy could be a really dangerous player. However, that‘s an upside bet I wouldn’t be willing to make at this stage. Likely high level role player.
Tier Six— I love the pieces, but there’s something missing
21. Usman Garuba
One of the best pick and roll defenders I’ve ever seen as a prospect. He blows up so many actions with deflections and has impeccable timing playing the ball handler and roll man. That alone gives him value in the NBA. But his defensive chops are so much more than that.
He is an extremely intelligent defender. His fundamentals are nearly perfect. He always has high hands, always plays in a stance, moves his feet beautifully, and has terrific strength. All of these components result in a 6'8" big man with a 7'2" wingspan that can protect the rim at a high level. The verticality is a sight to behold. Strong enough to not get bullied in the post by bigger guys. Impeccable help defender, getting into passing lanes and blocking shots on the weak side. Great rebounder. Solid on the perimeter, can switch onto guards and even fight through screens. An absolutely ideal defensive prospect.
Offensively, it’s a struggle. He’s a good passer and can handle the ball a little in transition. He can make the right reads as a roller. He can make kick outs from the dunker spot. It’s a solid foundation. He’s not a great finisher in pick and roll because he lacks high-level vertical explosiveness, but it’s not a hindrance either. He cleans up on the offensive glass and projects as a semi decent rim runner.
The issue with Garuba is pretty obvious. He is a total non shooter. He shot 36% on 60 corner threes this year, but the form is a travesty. This in effect turns him into a center, and at the five, he’s quite small for the position and doesn’t really have the kind of explosiveness you’d like to see out of a small ball center. He survives based on his strength and defensive acumen. He’s not like Draymond as a passer. He makes plays in advantage situations but he’s not a defense-manipulator. So, in effect, you are kind of stuck with a PJ Tucker situation. You have a defensive Swiss Army Knife, but he’s a threat to score 0 points.
For Garuba to reach his max potential, there needs to be one of two outcomes: 1) He finds a way to score enough to be playable at the 5. If he can’t satisfy the role of a consistent finisher around the rim or hit 3s at a respectable rate, his mastery of defense may be irrelevant if his team is playing 4-on-5 on offense, 2) He becomes a forward who plays some small ball 5, but spends most of his time next to a legitimate floor spacing center. This could create an elite defense, and allow him to hang in the dunker spot if the center is a good enough shooter. This is the path that Milwaukee took, and how they were able to make Tucker effective. Garuba will absolutely be an impact defender in the NBA, especially as a connector, but it will be up to his offensive development (or his team situation) to see if he can blossom into a real contributor on a contending team.
22. Alperen Sengun
Comparably pretty low on Sengun vs. consensus. Just not my kind of player.
He’s a fantastic offensive center. Probably the best offensive rebounding prospect since Enes Kanter? He’ll probably be as good as Nikola Vucevic. I realize that most people would prefer Vucevic’s career to a lot of the comparisons I’ve made on some of the prospects ranked higher than Sengun. But there’s a reason why Nikola Vucevic is never on contending teams. The defense just isn’t there, and you can’t survive in the NBA playoffs without rim protection. Full stop.
I’ll give this to Sengun: he’s a joy to watch. Elite catching ability. He grabs everything. Pretty fluid as a dribbler and really impressive in the open floor. Excellent finisher. Will thrive in the NBA due to his mastery of the pick and roll. He’s a good vertical athlete, so his ability to cover ground combined with his ability to catch the ball and finish makes him deadly as a roller. He’s got an old school low post game. Perfect footwork. Pretty spin move. Good vision out of the post — hits cutters and spot up guys off motion. Not really a a shooter yet, but has all the makings of a future center who can shoot. For a guy who looks a bit like a lumbering, low-post center, he’s pretty electric in transition.
The defense is just too big of an issue. He’s 6'10" in shoes with a 7'0" wingspan. He’s not a shot blocker. He understands verticality, but who in the NBA is going to have trouble finishing over a guy with a 7'0" wingspan who knows how to go vertical? It’s not enough. He can’t defend in pick and roll. He’s got tight hips and gets burned in space. He has no change of direction capability. Teams are going to hunt him all day. This is the classic case of a center who isn’t big enough to be a rim protector, so you can’t play him at the five, and isn’t quick enough to guard on the perimeter, so he gets cooked nightly at the four. It’s the Kevin Love Dilemma.
Sengun is going to get buckets. You don’t win Turkish League MVP as a teenager unless you’re good at basketball. But he’s not Nikola Jokic. He’s more like Vucevic, or Love, or Kanter. The center position, and in particular, the defensive acumen of the center in question, is too important in modern team-building to sacrifice it entirely and hope for the best. I am sure Sengun will be a good player in the NBA, but I am doubtful that he’s a major contributor to a contender, absent the development of a high volume jump shot or vastly improved form on defense.
23. Jalen Johnson
I don’t have the intel. I can’t tell you if Jalen Johnson cares about becoming a winning basketball player or not. If you told me with certainty that he was a high character guy with a solid work ethic that was respected as a teammate, Johnson would be all the way up to 7 on this board (probably, I am a homer after all).
The body, skillset and feel for the game is everything you want in a prospect. He’s a freight train in transition and a terrific passer, both on the break and in the half court. There’s definitely some LSU Ben Simmons in his game in the way he moves across the court and absorb contact as a driver, and in the way he distributes the ball in space. The feel manifests on defense as well, and while he relies on his physical tools and instincts instead of intensity and aggression, the defensive upside is legitimate in switching situations and as someone who can guard in the post. It’s just pretty rare that you get a guy who is a strong and imposing 6'9" with the passing chops Johnson has. If you’re drafting Johnson, you are drafting him for this game:
Against Pitt he was spectacular. The jumper had rhythm, he was active on the glass, he pushed the pace and dimed in transition. He controlled the game all over the floor with an extreme level of poise, absorbed contact and got to the line. It was an impressive performance and a glimpse of what he could be as a small ball five or a point forward. But he couldn’t replicate that performance.
I don’t trust the shooting splits: low volume, poor mechanics, bad from the line. Teams go under on him. He’s more of a strength-based athlete. He’s not going to blow by you and he’s not going to shake you off the dribble. This may dampen the impact of his passing. If teams sag off him with the ball in the half court and cut off his angles, I’m not really sure what value he brings on offense.
Another guy whose swing skill is shooting. Since he can’t get by defenders with a quick first step, if Jalen can get his shot consistent where teams need to start respecting his jumper, that is what will open up passing lanes. Duke played him at the five and it didn’t really work. I see him as a point-forward type in the best scenario, something like a Pascal Siakam. Siakam worked hard to develop his offensive craft, and once he became a threat as a scorer, his other skills began to shine. But as Sam Vecenie put it, “this is the kind of player that some will be comfortable missing on.” I am in complete agreement, but a strong player development program could reward a team that invests in Johnson.
Tier Seven — Rotational pieces with incomplete skillsets
24. Ziaire Williams
I don’t know what to do with this one. On one hand, I’m almost willing to write off the nightmare at Stanford entirely. There were myriad COVID issues that derailed the entire first half of the season, and he suffered two separate deaths in the family that caused him to miss some of the most important games of their year. He was also injured, again, and it impacted his play on the court. Williams has some of the best upside in this class based on his frame and fluidity alone, but the question marks are big.
Major injury risk here in my personal opinion. Extremely frail frame and it shows in his lack of strength. I think it connects to his injury history. Groin injury sophomore year of HS, ankle injury junior year, knee injury at Stanford. He is usually an explosive athlete, but you could see him favoring his knee early in the season and it impacted his athleticism.
When Ziaire is on the court and healthy, he makes a positive impact. He was awesome at Sierra Canyon. He was fantastic at the U19s in Greece. When he gets going, he looks like a future All Star. The fluidity off the bounce at 6'9" is in the vein of Paul George. He has really long legs, has great balance, and gets into his jumper with ease. The shot making potential is what gives him a high ceiling. There just aren’t that many 6'9" wings who can reliably create for themselves off the dribble. He’s a good passer too, using his height effectively to see the floor. On defense, he’s much better on the ball than off of it, gliding smoothly laterally to stay in front of ball handlers and using his length as a help defender. The issue is that all of this upside is theoretical.
He’s too small right now. Absolute string bean. He’s going to get abused early in his career. He probably needs a year in the G League. Beyond the problems on defense from a strength perspective, he just doesn’t have the frame to reliably finish in the lane right now. The jumper also isn’t there yet. It looks nice but it doesn’t go in. Not a catch and shoot threat and not a movement shooter. He needs a dribble or two to load into his motion. Also, for someone whose swing skill is shot creation, he is too careless with the ball. He is liable to get bumped off his spot, and while he’s shifty for his size and super fluid, his handle isn’t at the point yet where he can dribble out of trouble. Not the best decision maker despite his passing acumen. Lot of kinks to iron out.
Some patient team may be rewarded with Ziaire. By all accounts, he’s a great kid. Super sharp and a hard worker. I’ve seen questions about his love for the game… I think those are a bit unfounded. If last year was a normal college basketball season and he’d stayed healthy, I imagine we are talking about Ziaire in the top 10 of this draft. But it wasn’t, and unfortunately for him, this season did everything to illuminate the downside of his game without showcasing his potential. This is another player I wouldn’t be mad missing on.
25. Isaiah Jackson
Pogo stick. Simple scout here. Do you think he can get to the Clint Capela level? Jarrett Allen? Mitchell Robinson? That’s the prototype. Protect the rim, screen and roll. He’s not the kind of passer that Robert Williams is, and he’s probably closer in size to Nerlens Noel than Robinson (6'10" vs. a legit 7'0").
In college, Calipari let the reigns go a little bit. He was taking jumpers, trying to create for himself in the lane, forcing stuff. Not a good passer, really. The negatives are much like Robinson’s when coming into the league: block chasing leading to overaggressive defense putting him in foul trouble, poor screener who doesn’t make contact or set his feet which exacerbates the foul trouble and doesn’t create an offensive advantage. He needs to watch Gobert and Capela tape to become a better screener, and he needs to cut down on the stat-hunting when protecting the rim and become better with verticality.
If you can tame him, you have a quality five-man for the modern NBA. Super fluid mover for his size and an electric vertical athlete. Really, really quick leaper. Incredibly high motor, especially on defense. Very impressive instincts as a rim protector — weakside blocking skill is reminiscent of Robert Williams. Probably will be the best jump-shot-blocker in the league besides Robinson. He’s not really switchable but has good feet and knows how to guard PnR. Offensively, he’s good on the catch. Will obviously benefit from a good lob-thrower. Not a totally lost cause putting the ball down for a dribble or two to get by an opposing center. The second jump ability combined with ball timing off the rim makes him a great offensive rebounder and put-back threat.
If you need a center to protect the basket and be a rim-runner, you could do worse than Jackson. He’s going to land somewhere on the Noel — Capela spectrum. But how important is that, really? Capela is a tremendous asset for the Hawks, but they acquired him for very little. Houston straight up did not even want Jarrett Allen on their team. The Knicks don’t seem to have much interest in extending Mitchell Robinson. These types of players can be had in the open market. Jackson can be an asset, but not one worth a premium pick.
26. Cam Thomas
Bums don’t score 23 points per game as a freshman in the SEC. The only guys to do it in a major conference as freshmen in the last 25 years are Trae Young, Markelle Fultz, Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley. But, it’s happening more and more, and this was an unprecedented year in a number of ways.
Cam can score. There’s no doubt about it. He’s a 3-level scorer and can do it all. The 32.5% from 3 does a disservice to his shooting. Smooth mechanics, clean rhythm, consistent off the dribble or off the catch. Can shoot on the move, has deep range, and hits tough shots. Can’t go under on him. Really good at attacking switches. Has a nice set of moves and knows which one to go to depending on the situation. Gets to the line at a really solid clip and finishes through contact below the rim. He’s just really, really skilled at getting buckets. The problem is, it’s really all skill. He isn’t an NBA-level athlete. He projects a bit like Austin Rivers in this way to me… not a great first step, not super quick, doesn’t really play above the rim despite solid size, but had a knack for hitting tough shots in college with a hand in his face.
The rest of the game leaves much to be desired. Complete zero on the defensive side of the ball. Turnstile. Maybe even worse off the ball. He’s going to be hunted and his coaches are going to tear their hair out trying to find a way to minimize the damage he causes defensively.
As a passer, another total zero. Well, I mean, I don’t know if he’s actually good at passing or not because he just doesn’t pass the ball. Awful shot selection, doesn’t find open teammates, doesn’t get others involved. Not my kind of player.
I am not a huge fan of gunners and Cam is a gunner. He’s a talented scorer but I just don’t think he really helps you win. At least guys like Malik Beasley or Malik Monk try on defense or have some explosiveness to their games. This might be a Shabazz Muhammed situation. I’d be happy to pass on him.
27. Bones Hyland
He’ll join Steph Curry, Dame Lillard, Trae Young and Immanuel Quickley in the group of guys taking the deepest shots in the league. He’s also got one of the sweetest dribble packages to come into the NBA in a while. He leverages that ability to score at all 3 levels. Very smooth scorer. Loves to initiate contact. Really impressive finisher for his size. He’s a shot maker. He takes tough shots, but he makes them. He reminds me of a taller Isaiah Thomas. Not Zeke. The issue is how frail he is. He has 20 pounds to put on at the minimum. He’s not ready for NBA physicality right now. He is turnover prone, doesn’t make plays for his teammates, and is one-track minded as a scorer. That said, if he puts on some bulk and a team doesn’t hand him the reigns or anything crazy like that, he absolutely will be impactful as a bench scorer or microwave type due to the threat of the pull up and his unlimited range on plus efficiency. Real Jamal Crawford vibes. When you’re thinking about him vs. Cam Thomas, it’s a question of “range premium”. How much extra value are you putting on the few extra feet of space that Hyland is shooting from? And does that, combined with a better finishing ability actually make him more valuable than Thomas? I think it’s a coin flip. I have Thomas ahead mostly due to size and production volume.
28. JT Thor
Super raw but all the physical tools in the world. Youngest guy in the draft. 6'10" with a 7'3" wingspan. Really interesting defensive prospect because of his tools and fluidity to go along with his intensity on that end of the floor. There’s some really promising stuff here: the lateral movement, the fundamentals, the switchability, the instincts. When Auburn played him at center, he flashed some really impressive potential as a big covering PnR. He makes things happen — blocking jumpers, deflecting passes, meeting guys at the rim. The foundation on defense has really high upside.
There’s a ton that needs work: feel for the game on both ends, passing, shooting, and his body. The offensive game is a mess right now and he’s not playable in an NBA game. May not be for a couple of years. The entire shot needs to be reworked, but at least he’ll shoot them. He needs to sit in a film room for 2 years straight just so he can see more basketball. He doesn’t make reads on the move at all and he just tends to be a step or two behind the play.
Nevertheless, I think he’s worth a first round pick. There is real upside here as a switchable five-man who can shoot it. I think he projects more as a big long term than other folks do. If he can get stronger and grow into his frame a bit more, I have some confidence about his ability to hold down the defensive glass. Whoever drafts him needs to have a lot of patience, but these are the best athletic tools you can get towards the end of the first round.
29. Miles McBride
Definitely some De’Anthony Melton vibes here. Great length — 6'2" with a 6'9" wingspan. Absolute dog on the ball per tradition at West Virginia. Looking forward to him abusing some folks trying to bring the ball up at Summer League. Some NBA ready skills — the shooting, on-ball defense, and the playmaking are all there. The issue is that I don’t think he’s quite good enough to be a starting point guard, and his size limits him positionally due to some of his other offensive deficiencies.
The positives: Mega strong. You can’t bully him even though he’s small. Very, very aggressive on defense. Uses his athleticism to his advantage when it comes to lateral quickness on defense or finishing lobs at the rim. Will be a coach favorite because he just never stops coming at you. Solid shooter off the catch, but much better off the dribble. Loves the mid range, which is why his overall efficiency is relatively low despite good numbers from 3 and the FT line. Can reliably create his own shot. The short and stocky stature resembles Chris Paul in the way he snakes ball screens to get to his jumper. Pretty solid passer too. Not crazy vision or anything, but doesn’t make mistakes and always makes the right play.
On the other hand, he’s not super crafty and lacks good touch. No floater game at all. Doesn’t really jump off one foot, so has some trouble maneuvering around bigs in the lane to finish. Gets blocked frequently because of this. He’s a good passer but can’t be relied upon as a floor general. Definitely more of a scorer. Defensively, it’s not all roses. He has work to do as a team defender. More like fellow alum Jevon Carter in that respect than Melton, which I think ends up being the separator for me. Since he’s not able to put real pressure on the rim as a ball handler yet, I wonder if he’s destined for a backup PG role. I do think he’d be a useful one of those. His starter upside depends on if he can develop some more craft in the lane and refine his playmaking. There are just so many good point guards these days; it may just end up hard for McBride to find a place to start. A couple of things worth noting: 1) really poor offensive situation at West Virginia in his time there; spacing wasn’t ideal and lineup construction was stuck in the past, and 2) lifelong winner. Two-sport star: stud QB, and won two straight national titles and his last 49 basketball games in high school. Everyone raves about him. High-floor rotation guy.
30. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
I just hope he becomes good enough to reclaim the acronym JRE from the Joe Rogan Experience.
Jokes aside, this is the classic Villanova role player. Super solid across the board. High IQ guy, good finisher, moves the ball, quality team defender, large catch radius, verticality, weakside rim protection, the whole nine yards. Not really an NBA-level athlete. Gets by on feel for the game. Swing skill is… you can probably guess… shooting. He was serviceable as a big in college, but he’s not long enough or athletic enough to be a viable rim protector in the NBA.
So, if he plays the four and he’s not an above the rim-type athlete, he’s going to need to be able to shoot consistently to stay on the floor. The jumper isn’t quite there yet. Poor efficiency from pretty much everywhere besides the corners. It looks pretty good, though. The mechanics are solid and consistent. I’d bet on progression there, which is why I’ve got him slotted as a first round pick. He reminds me of a forward version of Kyle Anderson — not as much of a distributor, but they have similar body types and strength profiles, and it’s their feel that keeps them around. It seems likely that his jumper will come around, and he’ll stick in the league as a connector and role player.
Honorable Mentions
Josh Christopher
Greg Brown
Ayo Dosunmu
BJ Boston
Quentin Grimes
