NBA Season Preview 2016–17
Eastern Conference Win Totals
Thrilled to be back talking hoops. Let’s waste no time.
(Lines Source: Pinnacle Sports)
Atlanta Hawks: Over/Under 43.5
The Hawks represent a common experiment across the Eastern Conference this season. Can a very good, if not excellent coach keep afloat what is ostensibly a puzzling roster and maintain an environment of growth and improvement? Similar situations exist in Milwaukee, Orlando and Detroit.
While Dwight Howard is severely underrated by the average NBA fan, it’s likely that he is significantly overrated by Dwight Howard. Dwight seemingly spent the offseason developing his elbow jumper instead of focusing on his ability as a pick and roll player and rim-runner. There’s enormous pressure on him to perform in his hometown, and he has incredibly efficient shoes to fill in Al Horford.
Dennis Schroder has a brighter future than Jeff Teague, but it remains to be seen if he is ready to run an NBA offense. Kyle Korver is a year older, and Kent Bazemore is much richer. There is a lot to be asked from Tim Hardaway Jr. Their backup point guard is 27 year-old rookie Malcolm Delaney. Tiago Splitter is already hurt.
I love Paul Millsap, but there is a heavy burden on his shoulders this season. He was shopped around this summer, and turns 32 next season as his contract expires. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a trade if things fall apart, and considering all the moving pieces, they just might.
Selection: Under
Boston Celtics: Over/Under 52.5
The Celtics will start a menacing five-man unit in Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson and Al Horford. One of the top defensive units in the league, their incredible versatility extends to their bench with Marcus Smart, an improved Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Gerald Green, Jonas Jerebko, Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller. The Celtics boast one of the deepest rosters in the league, with a tremendous variety of lineup options that offer each of their own advantages.
Brad Stevens will look to improve on his stellar professional coaching career, and possesses the most talented roster in his time in Boston. Horford, who was often overlooked next to Millsap in Atlanta, will blossom as the Celtics’ 2nd scoring option. Between Horford, Crowder and Bradley, the Celtics have a player that can guard elite PGs, wings and bigs. Barring injury, it’s hard to see the Celtics finishing any worse than 3rd in the Eastern Conference, and I comfortably project them to finish as the 2 seed.
Selection: Over
Brooklyn Nets: Over/Under 20.5
Woof. Can Brook Lopez make it through the season on the Nets? Hard to see that happening.
Sean Marks has driven Brooklyn straight into the tank, and considering their 2017 pick swap with Boston, and their 2018 1st owed to Boston, Danny Ainge’s job has never been safer.
This team is comically dreadful. They boast Lopez, Jeremy Lin, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Trevor Booker as their only redeemable commodities. Luis Scola will accrue legitimate playing time on the Nets this season. As will Randy Foye.
Joe Harris and Justin Hamilton looked decent in the preseason, and I’ve long been high on Caris LeVert. Nonetheless, this is 2016–17’s worst roster.
Selection: Under
Charlotte Hornets: Over/Under 42.5
I am torn on the Hornets. On one hand, they are seemingly relying on Marvin Williams’ 2015–16 as the new normal and Roy Hibbert to be their starting center. On the other, they won 48 games last season and get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back from injury.
The case for their regression is significant losses and an unimpressive bench. Steve Clifford will work with some rotation involving Ramon Sessions, Marco Belinelli, Jeremy Lamb, Spencer Hawes, Frank Kaminsky and Cody Zeller. Assuming Williams comes back to Earth, and that Batum overperformed in a contract year, it’s certainly possible they could fall out of the playoffs. They lost both Courtney Lee and Jeremy Lin, and if Hibbert is completely done, another decent possibility, they could drop into the lottery.
The case for stability is Steve Clifford’s maniacal preparation and the defensive versatility offered between Batum, MKG and Williams. Walker had a career season, showed improvement from deep and proved himself a capable top option. Although I consider it slightly more likely they drop back, especially considering the much-improved conference, as well as the likelihood of injury and/or regression, they still win enough games to make the playoffs comfortably and top their surprisingly low win-total.
Selection: Over
Chicago Bulls: Over/Under 38.5
I can see the case for the Bulls. Rondo-Wade-Butler-Gibson(Mirotic?)-Lopez is a talented group of veterans that should win their fair share of games. They should be decent defensively, have multiple players that can create their own shot and have a fair amount of athleticism. Their depth is respectable, with one of Mirotic or Gibson off the bench, Doug McDermott, Michael Carter-Williams, Bobby Portis, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine.
However, their flaws are so obvious they scream off the page. None of their guards have a career 3-point shooting percentage over 33%. Rondo, Wade and Carter-Williams all fail to crack 29%. Lopez is not a post-scorer, and Mirotic can’t create without space. It’s legitimately hard to see this team scoring 95 points per game.
Hoiberg exhibited no creativity in his first season coaching, and now has to manage one of the most personality-rich locker rooms in the NBA. They cut Spencer Dinwiddie, one of their promising young players, because they traded Tony Snell, another promising young player, for Michael Carter-Williams, a player who will arguably have a worse career than Jerian Grant, whom they traded for just a few months ago. I can’t figure out the direction, and the game plan against them is way too easy.
Selection: Under
Cleveland Cavaliers: Over/Under 56.5
Cleveland must balance two difficult tasks: 1) Win what may become a legitimate battle for home-court advantage with Boston and 2) Reach LeBron’s seventh consecutive NBA finals.
I say they walk the balance beam and maintain home court, while suffering a couple more losses against an improved Eastern Conference. It will be close, but I think they edge Boston for the 1 seed by one or two games.
Selection: Under
Detroit Pistons: Over/Under 44.5
Reggie Jackson’s injury poses a significant problem for the Pistons. Andre Drummond is vastly more effective as a roll-man or cutter than as a post-up scorer. Last season, post-ups engulfed 27.5% of his offensive possessions, while rolls and cuts accounted for a combined 25% of possessions. On cuts and rolls, he shoots 60.7% and 62.3% respectively. On his post-up possessions, he shoots 39.6% and placed in the 27% percentile of players last season. Put-backs accounted for another 23.3% of his offensive possessions, at which he was average (54.9% percentile), although he had 139 more put-backs than runner-up Enes Kanter. That number projects to rise, as the Pistons present a woeful shooting lineup. None of Ish Smith, KCP, Tobias Harris nor Marcus Morris have shot above-average from three over consecutive years.
As Reggie Jackson recovers, the Pistons’ depth may be sabotaged by poor shooting and the removal of their bread and butter, the Jackson-Drummond pick-and-roll. They should stay in the playoff race, but their anticipated jump into the upper-echelon of the East is on pause until Jackson is healthy.
Selection: Under
Indiana Pacers: Over/Under 44.5
The Pacers hype is confounding. They replaced an incredibly underrated George Hill with Jeff Teague, a major drop in defensive talent, replaced Frank Vogel with Nate McMillan, a drop in coaching talent, Ian Mahinmi with Al Jefferson, more defensive subtraction, and added a solid NBA player in Thad Young. Their starting lineup is isolation-heavy, and each player takes 10–15 shots per night, while George projects between 15–20.
Ellis and Teague are one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA, their bench unit’s success is heavily dependent on a 2nd-year leap from Myles Turner, and the addition of Thad Young will result in less George at the four. I’m pessimistic.
Selection: Under
Miami Heat: Over/Under 34.5
Projecting the Heat depends on predicting the direction Pat Riley takes, a largely fruitless task. There is the ‘tanking’ path that involves trading Dragic for spare parts. There’s the stealth-tanking path that involves moving Dragic for a Rudy Gay contract that expires going into 2018. There is the development path, where they attempt to compete with a decent collection of athletes in Whiteside, Dragic, Winslow, Tyler Johnson, Richardson, Derrick Williams, Dion Waiters, James Johnson, etc.
I think Riley sees an improved Eastern Conference and a failed plan with Dragic. He acquired him to compete in the post-LeBron era, and compiled a legitimate team with Wade, Bosh and Whiteside. However, now that the Big Three is never more, Dragic seems a likely candidate to go. Perhaps they move him, strike gold once more in the lottery, and move forward with a formidable core of Winslow, Whiteside and whomever they find in the loaded 2017 Draft. Regardless, Riley knows this team won’t compete, and as a pragmatist I expect him to maximize his team’s future by pairing Winslow with another young star.
Selection: Under
Milwaukee Bucks: Over/Under 34.5
I was really excited about the Bucks this season. Giannis as a point guard poses incredible opportunities with unparalleled length and a multitude of playmaking options on the floor.
However, they lost Khris Middleton to an awful injury and it will derail their season. Middleton is an outstanding player. He finished in the 77th percentile on post-up possessions, 81st percentile on hand-offs, 82nd on isolations and 80th in transition. He’s a tremendous defender, is 25 years old and the most efficient scorer on the team.
Greg Monroe anchors one of the worst defensive benches in the league, along with Mirza Teletovic, two young players in Brogdon and Vaughn, and Michael Beasley. Middleton was the glue that held this team together, and in his absence they may crater.
Selection: Under
New York Knicks: Over/Under 38.5
Hard not to be excited about the new-look Knicks. All bias aside, and there is a lot, the Knicks improved in almost every category this season. Their passing improved tremendously with the additions of Noah, Hernangomez and Jennings. They will go from one of the worst transition teams in the NBA to one that runs off misses and has personnel to score efficiently in an up-tempo offense. They will get dribble penetration from their guards, something unbeknownst to Knicks fans since Marbury. Their perimeter defense improved significantly with Courtney Lee, as Calderon and Afflalo proved to be turnstiles on a nightly basis.
They are more athletic, have more leadership, and upgraded their coach from Rambis, unfortunately stuck in ways of Jackson’s triangle, to Hornacek, who has reinvigorated the team with early offense and an abundance of three pointers in the preseason.
Their depth is incredibly unproven, and will rely on significant rotation minutes from guys like Justin Holiday and Mindaugas Kuzminskas alongside more proven veterans like Brandon Jennings, Kyle O’Quinn and Lance Thomas.
Nevertheless, this team has an energy and style that is reminiscent of the 54-win Knicks of 2012–13. If Porzingis makes a significant leap, as many Year Two players do, they could be a legitimate force in the Eastern Conference. It remains to be seen the production they will get from Rose and Noah, but Rose is 27 and Noah’s injury ‘history’ is overstated. There is playoff talent on this team, and they will be difficult to guard on many nights, but making the playoffs will largely depend on health and defense.
Selection: Over
Orlando Magic: Over/Under 37.5
I’m buying the oddly constructed Magic in 2017. Frank Vogel has put together the anti-small ball rotation that will apparently feature a significant amount of Aaron Gordon at the 3. They boast one of the taller lineups in the East, with Ibaka and Vucevic at the bigs. With Biyombo and a small-ball Jeff Green at the four off the bench, the Magic also possess one of the deepest frontcourts in the NBA.
Another factor in my optimism is the abundance of individual motivations on the team. Evan Fournier is poised for a breakout season as the departure of Oladipo will put the ball in his hands. Hezonja is a talented bench scorer who deserves more opportunities, and both Jeff Green and Ibaka are in contract years. Elfrid Payton must prove if he’s a starting point guard in the NBA. Vogel was just fired from a long-time job in Indiana, and the front office just traded Victor Oladipo, who was arguably their franchise player.
Stephen Zimmerman is a talented rookie big man, and the front court is crowded already. I would not be shocked to see Vucevic flipped for backcourt help, which would open the door for an absolutely terrific defensive combination of Ibaka and Biyombo. Gordon has so much talent and this may be the year he puts things together. I am a fan of the Magic’s potential, and their organization is desperate to win. I think they have a good shot.
Selection: Over
Philadelphia 76ers: Over/Under 23.5
It is tough to project the Sixers before the inevitable trade of Nerlens Noel. After complaining about the gluttonous center situation in Philadelphia, it is likely Noel is moved after he recovers from his recent knee procedure. Even with Noel gone, they still have Okafor, Embiid, Simmons when healthy, Richaun Holmes, Jerami Grant, and Covington and Saric who both can play small-ball four. Their shot creation from the guard positions is extremely limited, and the perimeter defense lacks a true lynchpin for opposing teams’ top scorers. The Sixers will tank again to the dismay of the league, but will likely have multiple lottery picks in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. They will be very good soon, but 2016–17 won’t have many Ws.
Selection: Under
Toronto Raptors: Over/Under 50.5
It is inevitable the Raptors regress off their 56 win season in 2015–16. They brought most of the band back together, and added Jared Sullinger to their front court rotation. They lost Biyombo to Orlando, and replaced him with Jakob Poeltl, and unproven rookie that will be relied upon to protect the rim playing next to Sullinger. DeRozan was remarkably efficient for an iso-heavy player in a contract year, and did not perform well in the playoffs as teams began to figure him out. Norman Powell exceeded expectations, and may fall back to Earth a bit.
Nonetheless, this is a deep team that will certainly finish top-four in the conference. Considering their experience, depth and talent, I think they find a way to squeak over 50 wins and reach the three seed.
Selection: Over
Washington Wizards: Over/Under 42.5
Scott Brooks has a difficult task this season. Coming off an enormous contract extension, not only is there tremendous pressure on Bradley Beal, but it’s easy to see John Wall’s dissatisfaction with him and the potential bad blood that may result. Despite no hard evidence, it doesn’t seem they have the best relationship on the court, and Wall is locked into a significantly lower contract than Beal over the next three seasons. Wall is clearly the Wizards’ alpha dog, and now he must lead a locker room where his backcourt mate makes millions more than him and has started more than 60 games once in his NBA career.
On top of all that drama, their backcourt consists of an unproven Tomas Satoransky, Trey Burke and Marcus Thornton. There is another strong personality in Markieff Morris. Neither Otto Porter nor Kelly Oubre have proven themselves, especially on the defensive end, and Jason Smith is their backup center until Ian Mahinmi returns from knee surgery.
Like every season since drafting him, the Wizards season largely rests on Bradley Beal’s health. Over the past three years, in games Beal has played over 30 minutes, the Wizards are 71–62. In games he’s missed, or played under 15 minutes, they are 27–32. Injuries are almost impossible to predict, but unfortunately Beal has not proven he can stay on the floor. If he can, the Wizards should win 45 games, but I cannot predict that with confidence.
Selection: Under
EASTERN CONFERENCE PROJECTION
- CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
- BOSTON CELTICS
- TORONTO RAPTORS
- NEW YORK KNICKS
- CHARLOTTE HORNETS
- ORLANDO MAGIC
- DETROIT PISTONS
- ATLANTA HAWKS
- WASHINGTON WIZARDS
- INDIANA PACERS
- CHICAGO BULLS
- MILWAUKEE BUCKS
- MIAMI HEAT
- PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
- BROOKLYN NETS
