NBA Season Preview 2016–17 Part Two
Western Conference Win Totals
To see my Eastern Conference preview, click here.
Dallas Mavericks: Over/Under 39.5
Since the year Dirk Nowitzki entered the starting lineup in 1999–2000, the Mavericks have won 39 games or less just once, and that happened in the lockout season in which they finished 36–30. The demise of the Mavericks is overstated. Rick Carlisle is one of the five best coaches in the NBA at minimum, and surrounding a top-five coach with any nominal amount of talent will result in a .500 season in the NBA.
The Mavericks boast a legitimately impressive starting five on the defensive end, bringing in two talented defenders Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut from Golden State. They lost Chandler Parsons, a fine player, but his health plagued him all of last season. Wesley Matthews is another year removed from his gruesome injury, and should continue his impressive return to form. Seth Curry was an underrated signing who showed legitimate promise as a volume bench scorer in Sacramento last season. Barnes is certainly not a number one option, but I believe that with Dirk and Matthews, they have enough shooting to avoid an overwhelming burden on Barnes’ shoulders.
In a depleted West, Carlisle finds a way to get this team to .500. I’m not sure about the playoffs, but when it comes to .500, you have history on your side.
Selection: Over
Denver Nuggets: Over/Under 36.5
As the Nuggets continue their rebuilding process, the ultimate success of a talented roster will depend on the second season of Emmanuel Mudiay. Mudiay was horrific last season, posting a 9.9 PER, .437 true shooting %, as well as an 88 ORtg and 110 DRtg per 100 possessions. He shot 38% on two-point field goals and took 12 of them per game. He played 30.4 minutes per game and had a 25.7% usage rate. That kind of inefficiency at such a high volume crushes any chance you have to win basketball games.
Mudiay needs to significantly improve if the Nuggets want a chance to make the playoffs. Furthermore, Wilson Chandler must prove he can stay healthy, as he has played more than 70 games one season in the past five years. Will Barton has proven himself a more capable sixth man, though in Garry Harris’ absence he may be forced to start. They have a ton of young talent with Mudiay, Nurkic, Jokic, Jamal Murray, Juan Hernangomez, and Malik Beasley, however one can only confidently project two or three as positive contributors this season.
I am a fan of their international front court, sporting Gallinari, Jokic and Nurkic, however, I’m unsure if it’s enough to carry the youth and inefficiency throughout the depth chart.
Selection: Under
Golden State Warriors: Over/Under 66.5
Jesus Christ. If healthy, the Warriors would be a favorite to win every game this season except potentially three. They twice play in San Antonio on the second half of a back-to-back, and play in Cleveland on Christmas. I expect them to be favored in the Cavaliers game. Therefore, reasonably, without knowing how many games their stars will rest, it’s difficult to actually predict them to finish 65–17 or worse. So I’m picking them Over their total. But I’ll spend some time picking apart what I believe to be their potential flaws, even at full strength. Succumbing all interest in basketball this year because of potential Warriors dominance is ridiculous, as sports present unlikely outcomes every day and preparation is what separates the simply lucky from those who capitalize on a fortunate opportunity.
In their historic 73–9 season, the Warriors finished 25th in free throw rate, 20th in offensive turnover %, 19th in offensive rebounding percentage, 22nd in defensive turnover %, 15th in defensive rebounding %, and were 17th in terms of free throws allowed per field goal attempt. They also had the 28th rate strength of schedule. Their incredible success was actually a result of the maximization of efficiency in the math of the sport. They finished 2nd in pace, 2nd in three point attempt rate, 1st in effective field goal %, and 2nd in defensive effective field goal %. All that means is that they scored in transition, resulting in high efficiency layups and dunks, were extremely effective at shooting more valuable three point shots at a high volume, and forced their opponents to essentially do the opposite.
Three of some of the most prolific football minds in the past few decades all happen to be named Bill, and they all happen to share a common philosophy. Bill Polian, Belichick and Parcells all adhere to the idea that there is a ‘holy trinity’ of positions in football that ultimately define success. If one can acquire an elite quarterback, left tackle, and pass rusher, they can compete for Super Bowls. This is because those positions go after the most high-efficiency plays in the sport that produce the most scoring opportunities, downfield passing plays that require an elite arm, elite protection, or defensively an elite player to reach that opposing arm.
I go on this tangent to explain that the Warriors largely do not care that they have further sacrificed their ability to rebound and give up free throws, or that they lag in categories such as offensive turnover rate and free throws generated. They have identified what the Bills identified in football; if you compile a roster that can both shoot threes and layups at a high rate and high percentage, as well as force opponents to shoot fewer layups and worse from three, the minutiae of basketball becomes largely irrelevant.
To defeat the Warriors, a team must remove at least one of their three core competencies: their ability to shoot threes, their ability to score in transition, and their ability to defend the three point line. Simply, you need to elite perimeter defense, someone that can control the pace of a game, or comparable shooting talent. We have seen teams fail at trying to mimic their style, as they simply cannot keep up with the Warriors efficiency at playing a fast-paced shootout. The addition of Kevin Durant makes a competent defense of the perimeter almost impossible.
Therefore, the only true option left and the one that has had the most success against the Warriors is the one LeBron has employed, and the one the Grizzlies and Spurs have employed in their closer games vs. Golden State. One needs to slow the game down as much as possible. Teams must control the ball, bleed possessions deep into the shot clock, avoid tempting transition and offensive rebounding opportunities, and play towards a slowed game in the fourth quarter. The Warriors lack significant rim protection, so teams must pound the paint and hope to goad Draymond into foul trouble. Their bench isn’t particularly deep, so they’ll like stagger Curry or Durant for entire games. Those are opportunities to double and try for second-chance possessions.
If teams fail to identify this strategy, they’ll give up 125 points every night against this juggernaut. It’s hard to see anyone scoring more points than this team 17 times, so I’ll take the over on their win total, but there is enough strategic tinkering to be done, and enough emotional strife behind certain members of the team, where the title may not be such a done deal.
Selection: Over
Houston Rockets: Over/Under 44
Until this team inevitably breaks down from injury, I am tremendously excited to watch the return of Mike D’Antoni basketball with such a talented group. Daryl Morey has assembled perhaps his most idealistic rim-running, three-point bombing Moreyball machine yet. James Harden looked revitalized in D’Antoni’s offense this season, and Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson are shooting such wide-open transition threes that it was sometimes mind-boggling.
Unfortunately, the team has no real point guard depth in the almost-cut Tyler Ennis, unless they choose to stagger Beverley and Harden a bit. Beverley, Anderson, Gordon, and Nene are all pretty significant injury risks. It’s Clint Capela’s first year as a starter. Their defense will be porous for quarters at times between Harden, Gordon and Anderson. So, while there are reasons to be excited, I’m unsure about the ceiling. I think, if healthy, they’ll score enough points to make the playoffs relatively comfortably in a weaker Western Conference. But they have major defensive issues to settle before competing in any serious fashion.
Selection: Over
Los Angeles Clippers: Over/Under 54
I think it might finally be LA’s year. A fully-healthy Clippers team enters 2016–17 with zero expectations. Blake Griffin is practically a year removed from basketball relevancy. Nobody noticed that J.J. Redick made 200 of 421 threes last season. Chris Paul had his best per-36 minute scoring average last year since 2008–09. His three point attempt rate increased the past two seasons to the highest levels of his career.
DeAndre Jordan is in his prime, they have a surprisingly decent backup PG in Raymond Felton, and if Alan Anderson can stay healthy, he may prove to be the competent role player they have always searched for at the wing spot. The loss of Cole Aldrich will hurt, but a backup unit with Felton, Rivers, Crawford, Brandon Bass and Speights along with others has some punch to it and veteran depth that can sustain minor injuries along the way. I think they are clearly the 2nd best team in the West and poised to win 60 games.
Selection: Over
Los Angeles Lakers: Over/Under 25.5
D’Angelo Russell, Jose Calderon, Marcelo Huertas, Jordan Clarkson, and Lou Williams make up one of the worst perimeter defenses in modern NBA history. The Lakers have thrilling young talent with Russell, Clarkson, Ingram, Randle and Nance Jr., but will get slaughtered most nights by veteran teams that will pick apart their youth defensively. They don’t really have particularly efficient shooters, and Ingram will likely take 15+ shots per night at a low percentage due to his inexperience. Deng and Mozgov are both nice players, but they don’t fit with the rest of this roster, and truthfully it’s difficult to imagine they stay engaged as the Lakers move into March as one of the worst teams in the league.
Their athleticism along with Russell’s 2nd year jump will propel them to 20-ish wins, but the Lakers have one of the youngest cores in the league and simply don’t have the talent to stay out of the lower echelon of the lottery.
Selection: Under
Memphis Grizzlies: Over/Under 43.5
This total is downright preposterous. Marc Gasol is on a minutes restriction and clearly does not look right. Chandler Parsons is recovering from knee surgery. Their backup point guard, Wade Baldwin, has a knee injury already. Tony Allen has a knee injury too and hasn’t played over 65 games since 2012. Their backup center, Brandan Wright has an ankle injury, and had knee surgery last season. They have a new coach in David Fizdale. Add all of this uncertainty to one of the least proven benches in the league.
Their bench consists of Andrew Harrison, Wade Baldwin, Troy Daniels, Vince Carter (the oldest player in the league), James Ennis, Z-Bo, and Brandan Wright. Z-Bo might get triple-teamed in those stints. It seems like this team was constructed on the entire basis of a best-case scenario, and that scenario has already fallen off the rails. In my opinion, this team is going way into the lottery. I like JaMychal Green, but based on recent history, there is little chance of consistent production from Gasol or Parsons, and I’m unsure of Conley’s ability to carry this team to 40 wins without them alongside an aging Allen and Randolph.
Selection: Under
Minnesota Timberwolves: Over/Under 41
I think people are way too high on the Wolves.
However, I did say in the opening bit to this piece, when discussing Rick Carlisle, “surrounding a top-five coach with any nominal amount of talent will result in a .500 season in the NBA.” Tom Thibodeau is a top-five coach.
Karl Towns averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds per preseason game this year. He only played 23.3 minutes per game. Against the Grizzlies he took 17 free throw attempts (he made all of them) in 24 minutes. They won all four preseason games in which he played, and lost the only one he rested.
I don’t think this team has the depth to win 50 games. Their bench consists of a rookie PG in Kris Dunn, Brandon Russ, Shabazz Muhammad, Nemanja Bjelica, Jordan Hill and Cole Aldrich. However, Towns may make one of the great 2nd-year leaps in recent history, and one can only expect the Wiggins-LaVine combination to be more potent as the gain experience and confidence. This team will be a lot to handle on a nightly basis, and they should cruise over .500.
Selection: Over
New Orleans Pelicans: Over/Under 36.5
If Jrue Holiday comes back by Thanksgiving, or maybe Christmas, this team has enough talent to win 40 games. They had a wonderful offseason in my mind, picking up a variety of fringe-rotational talents that may blossom under an expanded role. All of the following players showed intriguing skill-sets elsewhere, but haven’t been given the opportunity or time to truly expand their games until this point: Tim Frazier, Langston Galloway, E’twaun Moore, Solomon Hill, Terence Jones. Each player has an odd misfit role to them, sliding between positions or just lacking the requisite talent to start at their position. Yet, together, if some of those darts hit the bullseye, they may be in a position to succeed.
On top of their offseason acquisitions, Anthony Davis was a hot MVP candidate before last season, yet must shake his constant injury woes. Buddy Hield and Cheick Diallo are two enticing NBA prospects. Tyreke Evans is hurt, but adds another playmaking element to their team when he’s healthy. Again, the Pelicans’ result is largely dependent on Holiday’s return, and that’s impossible to guess at this point.
For what it’s worth, I believe the Holiday family to be a triumphant one and will get through what has been an awful tragedy that is far bigger than basketball. I wish the best for Jrue’s wife and their baby daughter.
Selection: An optimistic Over
Oklahoma City Thunder: Over/Under 45.5
The 2016–17 Thunder remind me of the 2015–16 Blazers. Out their long-time franchise players, the remaining core is a potent offensive backcourt and a rim-running center that can create havoc with their athleticism. Many expected the Blazers to fall off a cliff when Aldridge left the team, but they rebounded strong, led by Lillard and McCollum’s playmaking ability along with their rosters’ overall athleticism. The Thunder are similar, led by Westbrook and Oladipo who pose the most daunting backcourt in the NBA on a nightly basis.
While Curry and Thompson are impossible to guard, the Thunder guards are two non-stop athletes that will wreak havoc getting to the rim, as well as forcing chaos in passing lanes. Furthermore, Oladipo will serve as an ideal foil to Westbrook, as he can cover opposing guards and wings that have plagued Westbrook’s high-energy game for the past couple years.
They are not the most depth-focused team in the West, to say the least, offering a bench involving Ronnie Price, Josh Huestis, Joffrey Lauvergne, Kyle Singler or Andre Roberson alongside their lynchpin Enes Kanter. Offensively, they lack shooting, but the Westbrook-Adams pick and roll is a true weapon. Most of their scoring will come from individual playmaking, which limits their ceiling, but their core athleticism and talent, along with Westbrook’s motor, will drive them to 47 or 48 wins and hopefully a meeting with Golden State in the Western Conference playoffs.
Selection: Over
Phoenix Suns: Over/Under 29
There is just no way this team wins 29 games. No chance. First, they need to hand over the team to Devin Booker. The faux-attempt at contending with Bledsoe, Knight and Chandler is clearly a farce and considering the long-term hire of Earl Watson, the Suns front office probably realizes this fact.
The Suns will struggle immensely attempting to determine who the primary ball-handler will be early this season. While they figure out which, or both, of Bledsoe and Knight to trade, there will not be enough possessions between them both alongside Booker. This is without considering T.J. Warren’s high-volume tendencies, starting in place of P.J. Tucker who is currently cleared to play but recovering from back surgery. Tyson Chandler is 34 with three more years on his contract, and Alex Len has a qualifying offer next season. On top of that, for some reason, they brought in Jared Dudley to play small-ball four in front of their two lottery picks, Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender.
While the young talent on this team is impressive, the pieces make absolutely no sense. I strongly anticipate they clear house, which may involve trading both Knight and Bledsoe, putting this team in the 15-20 win range. Despite that, Devin Booker deserves the ball in his hands as much as possible, and the Suns can lose as many games as they want this year, as long as they see that and build from that point.
Selection: Under
Portland Trailblazers: Over/Under 45.5
Very strong line, as I think the Blazers win 46 or 47 games. They built on their success last season by adding Evan Turner, a polarizing player who I have vacillated on since his signing. I think he’ll fit their team, as he gives them a 3rd ball-handling weapon and thus increases the danger posed by Lillard and McCollum. Most teams simply won’t have defenders skilled enough to stay in front of all three ball handlers, so it’s likely that one of them will have a strong matchup on any given night.
Mo Harkless will start at power forward, stretching the floor and adding to their already potent athleticism. Meyers Leonard is healthy coming into the season, and Allen Crabbe should improve after an impressive showing in the postseason. The Blazers will compete once more, and if Lillard plays at an MVP level, like Steve Kerr thinks, they could win 50+ games.
Selection: Over
Sacramento Kings: Over/Under 33
Darren Collison is suspended 10% of the season as a result of pleading guilty for domestic battery, Rudy Gay told George Karl that Sacramento was “basketball hell”, Ty Lawson missed a team flight in the preseason, and they also brought in Arron Afflalo, a high-volume train wreck who believes himself an elite two guard in the NBA, alongside Matt Barnes, who just a year ago had a high-profile fight with Afflalo’s coach at the time.
They brought in a new coach to deal with this chaos, and are opening a new arena at the time where they should be trading Gay and Cousins for picks and starting over. The team has five centers in Cousins, Labissiere, Koufos, Cauley-Stein, and Papagiannis. Even more ridiculous, they drafted three of them and signed the other in the past year! All to take time and possessions away from the only asset on the team, Cousins, who plays center.
Selection: Under
San Antonio Spurs: Over/Under 57.5
The abundance of trade rumors surrounding LaMarcus Aldridge is the primary reason I am not comfortable selecting the Spurs to win 58 or more games. Zach Lowe, Jackie MacMullan and Jabari Young all reported that rumor recently, and Bill Simmons corroborated it on his podcast. Parker and Manu are a year older, and while Duncan was somehow a defensive stalwart until his retirement, Gasol has been a defensive liabilty the past few years. Their depth is extremely inexperienced, relying on guys like Dejounte Murray, Jonathon Simmons and Kyle Anderson. Boris Diaw is in Utah.
Kawhi is a top-five player and will be a compelling MVP candidate, but that is one of their only brighter spots than last season. Danny Green is out for a few weeks, which is catastrophic for their perimeter defense and cannot be a long-term issue. Aldridge may be moved, which would set back their unbeatable consistency mid-season. As well, it remains to be seen if their young bench pieces are rotation players in the NBA. There are certain warning signs that 2016–17 may be a transition year for San Antonio.
Selection: Under
Utah Jazz: Over/Under 47.5
I am up to my teeth in Jazz stock. I’ve always been a fan of Quin Snyder and the Jazz’s front office. They consistently identify talent in the draft, and their team today is largely a product of that. The Jazz drafted Hayward, Hood and Gobert, alongside Burks, Exum and Trey Lyles. Hamstrung by an unattractive destination in free agency, they finally acquired a legitimate point guard in George Hill via trade, who fits their defensive style perfectly, is an underrated shooter and above-average playmaker.
Hood, Lyles, Favors, Gobert, Exum and Burks are all young and should grow this season. They fortified their depth with veteran talent like Diaw and Joe Johnson. They have the ability to withstand injuries to Hayward, since their offense is not one-dimensional and their players can guard multiple positions. Gobert’s ability to protect the rim provides a baseline defense that is above-average, and their combination of size and shooting makes for a a difficult game plan when preparing for their roster. The Jazz have at least a rotation player in at least 8 spots, most likely 10, or possibly 12 or 13. They have top-ten coaching, a surplus of youth, and a rare twin towers combination that can stay on the floor with many small-ball lineups. If they can weather some of the early injuries they are facing in Hayward and Favors, they are going to be one of the three or four best teams in the West.
Selection: Over
WESTERN CONFERENCE PROJECTION
- GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
- LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
- UTAH JAZZ
- SAN ANTONIO SPURS
- OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
- PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
- HOUSTON ROCKETS
- MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
- DALLAS MAVERICKS
- NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
- DENVER NUGGETS
- MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
- SACRAMENTO KINGS
- LOS ANGELES LAKERS
- PHOENIX SUNS
