Our Pets’ Heads Are Falling Off

Within the last twenty four hours, Tobias Harris and Otto Porter Jr. were both traded. Their deals were constructed as follows:

Harris Trade:

PHI received: Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, Mike Scott

LAC received: Landry Shamet, Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, 2020 protected Philadelphia 76ers 1st round pick, 2021 unprotected Miami Heat 1st round pick, and the 2021 and 2023 Philadelphia 76ers 2nd round picks.

Porter Trade:

WAS received: Bobby Portis, Jabari Parker, 2023 Chicago Bulls 2nd round draft pick.

CHI received: Otto Porter.

Tobias Harris turns 27 on July 15 and has played 15,648 career minutes.

Otto Porter turns 26 on June 3 and has played 10,255 career minutes.

These are their career stats side by side:

How can it possibly be that a trade package for Otto Porter, who is under contract for two more seasons, netted what essentially amounts to dead money, and Tobias Harris, who is a free agent and will likely earn a maximum contract this summer, netted a haul of assets?

A few things to consider here:

• Tobias Harris is having the best season of his career, but was doing so on a team where he was the primary scoring option
• Otto Porter is having one of the worst seasons of his career, but is doing so after battling multiple injuries throughout the season

Regardless of the facts above, the two trades in succession are incomprehensible from the perspective of the Sixers and Wizards. Firstly, there are legitimate questions about Tobias Harris’ fit on Philadelphia. He thrives as a high-usage player, and the marginal benefit of his presence is diminished by the three other high-usage players on his new team. Even before the Porter deal, it was the opinion of most unbiased observers that Philadelphia overpaid for Harris, who they have no guarantee of keeping in the summer. Now they must be kicking themselves, as they see a forward of comparable age, size and quality get traded for a bag of donuts. Things only get worse when you consider the fact that Porter is ostensibly a better fit for the Philadelphia roster both in the short and long term, considering his proven ability to play off the ball in a lower-usage role.

For Washington, dumping Porter as bad salary should be considered management malpractice. Their return of Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis is negligible. Parker is an expiring contract and one of the NBA’s worst defensive players, and Portis will be a restricted free agent and has started 27 games in his four-year NBA career, never exceeding a 55% true shooting percentage while sporting one of the worst combined steal and block rates in the league. How could the Wizards front office look at the return for Harris, who is inherently less valuable due to his free agent status, and is on track to get paid either a four-year contract worth $145.5 million, or a five-year contract worth $188 million, and determine that their comparable player in Porter, earning less in average annual salary over the next two years than Harris, is worth nothing but a salary dump?

One could make the argument that Porter, considering his younger age, actual contractual control, and superior fit on a team with high-usage players, is actually a more valuable asset than Harris. And somehow, because Harris scored 20 points-per-game as the top option on a balanced team in the Western Conference through 55 games, the collective NBA universe has determined that his Bird Rights are worth Landry Shamet (a rookie wing shooting 40.4% from three-point range on high volume), the unprotected 2021 Heat pick (widely considered one of the league’s most valuable draft assets), another protected 1st round pick, and cap space for a max contract slot. But, in an equally confusing twist, because Porter has been sporadically injured on a dumpster-fire of a team in the Eastern Conference, his contractual rights for the next two and a half seasons were determined to be practically worthless.

Recency bias is a hell of a drug. Philadelphia overpaid for Tobias Harris, and Washington got 15 cents on the dollar for Otto Porter. In retrospect, they should have simply traded with each other, and everyone would have been better off (except the Clippers and Bulls of course).