The Jets Need to Bite the Bullet: Start Geno Smith
Ryan Fitzpatrick had a career season for the New York Jets last season. He set their team record for touchdowns in a season with 31. He led the Jets to a 10–6 record, narrowly missing the playoffs. On the surface, he helped turn the team around and present a promising future. In reality, Fitzpatrick was the beneficiary of a massively upgraded team, a scheme that befit any professional quarterback, and an easy schedule.
The Jets understand that Fitzpatrick’s career year was no accident, nor was it actually as impressive as the numbers indicate. The Jets offered Fitzpatrick a 3-year, $24 million deal with $12 million in the first year and $6 million each in the final two. Incentives included, the deal could be worth $36 million over three years with $15 million guaranteed. This deal has been on the table since March. Fitzpatrick wants $15 million per year on a long-term deal, and the media has reported he would accept a 1-year deal for $12 million. The fact of the matter is Fitzpatrick has no leverage. No other team has offered him a similar contract, and he has even threatened to retire to no avail. Furthermore, Brandon Marshall still regularly FaceTimes with him and he has been seen in public with Jets players Eric Decker and Nick Mangold. Despite enormous public pressure and no apparent alternatives, the Jets have not caved to Fitzpatrick’s requests. It’s time they move on.
In 2014, Geno Smith’s last full year with the Jets, the team went 3–11 in games he started. He threw 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Geno’s leading receivers were Eric Decker, Jeremy Kerley, and Jace Amaro. Those were the only players on the Jets to catch more than 30 balls in 2014. Marty Mornhinweg was in his last year as offensive coordinator, and Rex Ryan was on his way out as coach. Things were bad, but not as bad as they seem.
Of the 11 losses, six were by a touchdown or less, two of which were against the Patriots. Two others were in consecutive games to the Bills, in which Buffalo scored 91 combined points and Smith attempted 20 total passes (Ryan would leave for Buffalo that spring). Furthermore, in the first nine weeks of the season, where the Jets went 1–8, their defense forced three turnovers.
Following the 2014 season, the Jets cleaned house and brought in Mike Maccagnan as GM, Todd Bowles as Head Coach and Chan Gailey as offensive coordinator. They traded for Brandon Marshall, upgraded their offensive line, drafted Leonard Williams to bolster their defensive line, and brought back Darrelle Revis. They also signed Fitzpatrick because of his familiarity playing for Gailey in Buffalo.
Under Ryan, the Jets offense was awful. From 2011–2014, their offensive rankings are to the left. Gailey had a difficult task, no matter his QB.
Last training camp, Geno Smith had his jaw broken when he was punched by IK Enemkpali in an argument about $600. Fitzpatrick took over, and seemingly flourished in the new offense with better weapons, and Jets fans never looked back. To most of them, Geno Smith was no more.
My goal here is to expose Fitzpatrick as a below-average quarterback whose career season was bolstered by new talent, a bevy of luck and a beneficial scheme. The thesis is that despite Geno Smith’s lack of impressive production, there is nothing to-date that indicates he is worse than Fitzpatrick. Beyond that, Fitzpatrick is 33 and lacks upside, more expensive than Smith, and still could not make the playoffs despite a career year. It would behoove the Jets to not give Geno a chance to start under a new scheme with better talent.
Fitzpatrick only threw 15 interceptions last season. According to Cian Fahey (@cianaf on Twitter), he could have thrown 31. The pass above, which was intercepted, was awful. Fitzpatrick made one read, to Marshall, and the safety, who lacks foot speed, was easily able to reach Marshall under a lofty pass, and was in perfect position to catch the tipped ball. The pass was thrown high, leading Marshall, not at his back shoulder with speed, and Marshall was tightly covered by Vontae Davis the entire route.
Fitzpatrick, 33, is a seasoned veteran and a Harvard grad. One would think he could learn from his mistakes. And yet, above, he makes the same mistake in the same quarter, launching a duck to Marshall without care for the coverage and so high that the safety was able to make a play on the ball.
This one Jets fans saw 10 times last season. Fitzpatrick stares his target down like a lion preying a gazelle, and sprays a pass at three defenders who fail to catch the ball. Fans breathe a sigh of relief, but this pattern has continued throughout Fitzpatrick’s career. Eventually the variance flips, and the result is three interceptions in a blown playoff-clinching game against the Bills.
The issues are staggering, and give up potential touchdowns on both ends. Look at the two plays on the left. In the first, Fitzpatrick throws what should be a pick six, but the linebacker drops it. Another sigh of relief.
In the second, Marshall, beats his defenders down the seam and has an easy touchdown over the top. Fitzpatrick throws it into the back of the defender in pursuit, an easy interception had he been looking.
The fact is, Fitzpatrick threw 31 touchdowns because of the changes made to the roster in the year he came to the team, as well as significant changes to the scheme. The touchdown above actually favors the cornerback. The ball is thrown to a spot almost impossible to reach, and yet Marshall turns it into a touchdown. This happened time and time again throughout the season.
Look at these three plays. All touchdowns to Marshall that require no precise target, but are just toss-ups where Marshall is too dominant to be stopped.
Beyond toss-up throws and spectacular catches, much of Fitzpatrick’s other success is scheme-related.
All three of the above touchdown throws should be credited to Chan Gailey. The play design of each allows for a simple throw to the first read, and uses a variety of pick plays to open lanes for the target.
Here, again, Fitzpatrick picks up a 25-yard touchdown on a screen pass that requires no difficulty. Perfect blocking and play design was the recipe, but Fitzpatrick was the chef. To extend the analogy further, in Chan Gailey’s kitchen, it doesn’t matter who the chef is. It could be Fitzpatrick, or it could be Geno Smith, but someone was going to throw 31 touchdowns last season.
Coming into 2016, the Jets face a tougher schedule than last season. They face the AFC North and NFC West, as opposed to last season’s AFC South and NFC East. If Fitzpatrick were to start under center, he would likely regress, and more of his ‘interceptable’ throws (31 last year) would be caught. It’s not likely he would improve, given he’s 33, and having only won 10 games last season, it’s even more likely the Jets will regress in the standings as well.
There is no sense in finishing 8–8, 3rd in the AFC East, with a middling draft pick and no clearer picture of the QB situation. The Jets most pragmatic course is to start Geno Smith. Perhaps his first two seasons showed his true colors, a player who makes careless mistakes and fails to be a franchise QB. If so, so be it. In that scenario, the Jets likely finish worse than 8–8, in position to draft a better QB, and have no financial obligation to a veteran at the position. They can make more educated determinations on Christian Hackenberg, who will be entering his 2nd season, and Bryce Petty, entering his 3rd. Perhaps, though, those initial Geno years were marred by poor receivers and play design, and he could flourish under Gailey. One would hope he could do better than 31 interceptable passes. Perhaps, even, the Jets look better under Geno with Marshall, Decker, Forte, Revis and co. than they did with Fitzpatrick, and the team makes the playoffs. It’s a completely unknown result, and one worth trying. With Fitz, you know what you’re getting, and you’re getting nowhere.
