Trae Young Scouting Report
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Trae Young (Ball handler, 19, 6'2", 178 lbs)
Statistical Profile
Strengths
Trae Young is the most polarizing prospect in this class. His offensive prowess to begin the NCAA season was unmatched by any freshman to ever play college basketball, and he was on pace to put up the greatest statistical season in NCAA history. Despite a decline in production as conference play progressed, he was a prolific passer and scorer over 32 games. What follows are noteworthy statistics per Synergy Sports: Young scored 1.019 ppp on isolations on 157 possessions, 1.045 ppp on jump shots off the dribble on 177 possessions, 1.194 ppp on hand offs, 1.391 ppp off screens, and 2 ppp on unguarded catch and shoots. He drove right 47.7% of the time and left 52.3% of the time, scoring above the 70% percentile in both.
The numbers tell the story of a deadeye shooter with a versatile scoring repertoire. He has unlimited range and is underrated in his ability to create space off the dribble and score in unconventional ways. He also has excellent footwork while shooting on the move and superb body control. Like Steph Curry, Young releases his jump shot as he rises as opposed to the peak of his jump. This allows him to generate power to take and make unconventional movement jumpers. He is an advanced finisher around the rim, draws fouls at a high rate while sinking 86% of his free throws, and has the ball handling chops, quickness and shiftiness to succeed at the next level as a primary ball handler. Young brings the rare dynamic of stretching defenses with his ability to shoot off the dribble from extremely long range, one of the most coveted skills in the modern NBA. Surrounding him with NBA talent and spacing will only accentuate this unique skillset and give Young the ability to alter defensive schemes in a similar fashion as Curry or Damian Lillard.
Young is also an elite playmaker, which is the skill that separates his status as a prospect from previous iterations of small guards who scored in high volume in college. He has incredible vision at a standstill and as a driver, and is a creative passer with either hand.
Young’s 9.8 assists per 40 minutes is the best among freshmen point guards taken in the lottery in the one-and-done era, significantly higher than Lonzo Ball, Mike Conley, John Wall and Dennis Smith, the other leaders in this category. Young makes his teammates better — Oklahoma climbed from 118th in offensive efficiency in 2016–17 to 38th this season while having 62.5% of their rotation minutes played by the same players. He will give an NBA team an infusion of spacing, shotmaking, and playmaking from the point guard position, and will be a major asset to a team building process due to the wide variety of pieces one can put around him to be successful.
Weaknesses
Young’s most glaring weakness is his defensive acumen and a lack of confidence that he will improve in this area. He is a small point guard, at 6'1.75" in shoes with a 6'3" wingspan, and lacks the strength to competently defend NBA point guards from a physical standpoint. He will likely be one of the worst defenders in the league in his rookie season and it is doubtful that he will be a switchable option until his frame develops as the years go on. He has quick hands which will help him knock balls loose and cause deflections in passing lanes, but it is nearly certain that he will be a defensive liability due to his lack of physical attributes to go along with poor instincts and effort.
From a physical standpoint, Young is not an elite athlete, nor does he have elite strength or speed. He is quick with the ball in his hands and possesses NBA shiftiness, but there is downside risk with his physical development that may hinder him from reaching his fullest potential offensively. Should he fail to develop physically into a player that can gain significant strength or improve his speed and athleticism, he may struggle to create space off the dribble which would inherently limit his upside.
Summary
Young is such an intriguing offensive prospect that his defensive limitations are almost meaningless. What follows are the point guards who made an All NBA team since the 2007–2008 season: Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Chauncey Billups, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, James Harden, Damian Lillard, Goran Dragic, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, John Wall, Isaiah Thomas. 10 of those 15 players are net-negative defenders for their careers. Sure, it would be incredible if Trae Young had Chris Paul’s defensive potential, but the fact that he doesn’t should not preclude him from being a top-five draft pick or a highly touted prospect destined for a potentially great career. Young’s ability to stretch the floor offensively paired with his innate passing vision and elite jump shooting gives him the highest offensive ceiling in this year’s draft. There is absolutely downside risk due to his low ceiling defensively and his physical limitations, but there is a legitimate window where he has Nash or Lillard-type offensive output. He will transform any offense he goes to due to his shooting range, and will undoubtedly make his teammates better due to his passing as well as the additional space he will afford them offensively. For a league that places a premium on shooting and passing, Young is too good to pass up, and his defensive or physical hangups are too inconsequential to scare teams away.
